Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsTennis · Oct 16, 6:45 AM PDT FORECASTPending RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Laura Samson vs Andrea Lazaro Garcia
—No winner forecast available
LOCKED Oct 16, 5:00 AM PDT4/4 models favor Laura Samson, but the mean probability (54.25%) is below the house threshold.
19 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Gemini: Laura Samson is ranked #128 with 578 ranking points.
- Claude: Samson ranked 128 vs Lazaro Garcia 143 — small ranking edge
- Grok: Laura Samson current rank 128, ranking points 578
- GPT: Laura Samson is ranked higher: 128 vs 143.
Read all four model reports
Gemini · Laura Samson · 53.0%
Laura Samson holds a slight ranking advantage over Andrea Lazaro Garcia (128 vs 143) and has accumulated more ranking points (578 vs 500). However, the ranking gap is narrow, and Samson's season win-loss record is unavailable. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable, making this a very close matchup to predict with low confidence.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 15, 5:02 PM PDTClaude · Laura Samson · 55.0%
The only usable signals are current ESPN rankings and points: Samson is No. 128 with 578 points versus Lazaro Garcia at No. 143 with 500 points — a narrow 15-place, 78-point edge that translates into only a slight favorite status. Samson's ranking trend is slightly negative (113 to 128) while Lazaro Garcia also slipped modestly (137 to 143), so trend offers no meaningful separation. Lazaro Garcia's supplied season record (33-20, .623) is solid but has no counterpart for Samson, preventing comparison. Surface-specific form, injuries/fitness, head-to-head history, travel/scheduling load (including any home-crowd factor for a Spanish player in Mallorca), and market odds are all unavailable in this evidence package. Accordingly I keep the estimate close to a coin flip with a small tilt to the higher-ranked player.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 15, 5:02 PM PDTGrok · Laura Samson · 55.0%
Based solely on supplied rankings and points, Laura Samson is ranked higher with more points, suggesting a slight edge. Andrea Lazaro Garcia's 33-20 record indicates solid form but cannot be directly compared without Laura's record. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable as not supplied in the evidence package. Thus, Laura Samson selected with 55% win probability.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 15, 5:02 PM PDTGPT · Laura Samson · 54.0%
Laura Samson gets a narrow edge based on the limited immutable evidence. She is currently ranked higher than Andrea Lazaro Garcia (No. 128 vs No. 143) and has more ranking points (578 vs 500), which are the most comparable cross-player indicators provided here. Both players' previous ranks suggest slight recent slippage (Samson 113 to 128, Lazaro Garcia 137 to 143), but Samson still retains the better current position. Andrea Lazaro Garcia does have a supplied 2026 season singles record of 33-20, which is useful positive evidence, while Samson's season win-loss record is unavailable, preventing a fuller comparison. Because the ranking gap is modest and one player's season record is missing, this should be treated as only a slight favorite assessment. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable in the evidence package.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 15, 5:02 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Laura Samson's season win-loss record is not supplied.
- Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable.
- Surface-specific form not supplied
- Injury/fitness status not supplied
- Head-to-head record not supplied
- Travel, rest, and scheduling load not supplied (including any home-nation factor)
- Market odds not supplied
- Samson's season win-loss record is null, blocking symmetric form comparison
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- First recorded forecast
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
0b929bb28aa87ff5b407949e7d646d2e5cdf14715cfdaa6cb65777cec8e7b09c - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
538b535843afe233060e6ab3166dc806d76b0d7c93d092ef9cbcab95df9c26cd
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
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Recorded outcome: (2) Laura Samson (CZE) bt (5) Andrea Lazaro Garcia (ESP) 6-0 ret
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