Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsNFL · Oct 11, 1:25 PM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTSeattle Seahawks RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established Current TORK57.5% Simple average57.5% Calibrated average58.2% Kalshi61.0% Inspect the methods and progress →
San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks
57.5%Seattle Seahawks
LOCKED Oct 11, 12:56 PM PDT4/4 independent models select Seattle Seahawks; all four oriented probabilities average 57.5%.
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17 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Gemini: Seattle Seahawks are 3-point home favorites.
- Claude: Market line SEA -3 implies Seattle favored by ~58%
- Grok: SEA home underdog line of -3
- GPT: DraftKings market line lists Seattle as a 3-point home favorite (SEA -3)
Read all four model reports
Gemini · Seattle Seahawks · 59.0%
The Seattle Seahawks are favored by 3 points at home against the undefeated San Francisco 49ers. A -3 point spread typically correlates to a moneyline of around -150 to -160, which implies a win probability of approximately 58-60% for the favorite.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 4, 4:50 PM PDTClaude · Seattle Seahawks · 58.0%
The only direct market signal is DraftKings SEA -3 at Lumen Field, which implies the home side is a modest favorite. A 3-point home spread with a 46.5 total historically converts to roughly a 57-60% win probability. Records (SF 4-0, SEA 3-1) slightly favor San Francisco, but the market has already priced that information alongside home-field advantage, situational factors, and any availability news not captured here, so I defer to the line while shading my estimate toward the lower end of the implied range given the undefeated road team.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 4, 4:50 PM PDTGrok · Seattle Seahawks · 55.0%
SEA enters at 3-1 hosting a 4-0 SF team at Lumen Field with a market line of SEA -3. The home favorite status and spread imply a modest edge for Seattle despite the inferior record. No injury, QB, or advanced metrics are supplied, so the estimate stays close to 50 and is bounded tightly by the provided line and records.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 4, 4:50 PM PDTGPT · Seattle Seahawks · 58.0%
The strongest comparative evidence in the package is the market spread: Seattle is listed as a 3-point home favorite. That implies Seattle is more likely than San Francisco to win, even though San Francisco has the better current record at 4-0 versus Seattle at 3-1. Home field at Lumen Field is also explicitly part of the context. With no quarterback, weather, or meaningful injury detail available, the spread is the best single summary of relative team strength in this evidence set, and a 3-point home favorite generally supports a modest, not overwhelming, win probability. I therefore make Seattle the likelier winner, but only by a moderate margin.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 4, 4:50 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No moneyline odds are provided, requiring an estimation based on the point spread.
- Injury reports are currently empty, which may not reflect the actual health of the teams.
- Weather information is missing.
- No moneyline odds provided; probability derived from spread-to-win-probability conversion
- Injury lists are empty for both teams, likely incomplete rather than genuinely clean
- No quarterback status or depth-chart detail supplied
- No weather data for an outdoor Seattle October game
- No point differential, efficiency metrics, or strength-of-schedule context behind the records
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 2.1 percentage points lower for Seattle Seahawks
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
4a9dca268306f2241e42d5f6eb210d82b7070cff8f030411060fcf7f2b1a21ef - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
ccea470e6785a14bd9d9993e8c6bdea313f8b925ccb9220889eb3029c3924215
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
All probabilities below refer to Seattle Seahawks. Model inputs were fixed at Oct 11, 12:56 PM PDT. The market was observed at Oct 11, 12:55 PM PDT.
Comparison record
Saved Oct 11, 1:04 PM PDT. This is a research comparison; no method has been promoted.
d9dfa457ffc6ce9f3f0f662cc1b4dbe05332e89b3e01ed5b488f2ef9a7840c92Available source context
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: San Francisco 49ers 32, Seattle Seahawks 29
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