Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsBoxing · Sep 12, 2:00 PM PDT FORECASTJose Ramirez RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Jose Ramirez vs Alexis Rocha
51.8%Jose Ramirez
LOCKED Sep 12, 9:20 AM PDTAll four probabilities, converted to the same fighter, average 51.75% for Jose Ramirez. 4/4 models select this fighter. Low confidence; the house still publishes a winner forecast.
15 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Gemini: Scheduled for 10 rounds at Welterweight
- Grok: Equal official weights at 146.5 lb
- Claude: Both fighters made 146.5 lb; no weight advantage documented
- GPT: 10-round welterweight bout is confirmed
Read all four model reports
Gemini · Jose Ramirez · 50.0%
There is no supplied pre-fight evidence regarding either fighter's professional record, past opponent quality, recent form, or fighting style. With only the scheduled rounds and weigh-in results available, it is impossible to establish a skill advantage for either Jose Ramirez or Alexis Rocha. Therefore, the forecast is a pure toss-up.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Sep 12, 9:20 AM PDTGrok · Jose Ramirez · 50.0%
Supplied evidence lists only bout details: Jose Ramirez vs Alexis Rocha, 10 rounds welterweight, both weighed 146.5 lb. No records, opponent histories, recent form, styles, or experience data are provided. Round count and equal weights alone establish no skill advantage. Sparse evidence requires minimum probability and low confidence.
xai/grok-4.3 · Sep 12, 9:20 AM PDTClaude · Jose Ramirez · 57.0%
Evidence is limited to a weigh-in line: 10 rounds, welterweight, both at 146.5 lb. No records, recent form, opponent quality, or style data are documented, so no verified skill edge can be established. Equal weights and equal scheduled rounds give no directional signal. A direction is required, so I lean marginally to Jose Ramirez, listed as side A (often the nominal A-side/favorite in card ordering), but this is a weak structural cue rather than performance evidence. Probability is kept near coin-flip and confidence low.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Sep 12, 9:20 AM PDTGPT · Jose Ramirez · 50.0%
Evidence only confirms this is a 10-round welterweight bout and that both fighters weighed 146.5 pounds. There is no supplied pre-fight data on boxing experience, opponent quality, recent form, style matchup, or health. Since weight and round count alone do not establish an edge, the matchup is effectively even on the available evidence. I therefore make a minimal directional pick with the lowest calibrated edge conditional on a decisive result.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Sep 12, 9:20 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No professional records provided
- No opponent history or quality metrics available
- No recent form or style information supplied
- No verified records or opponent histories
- No injury, camp, or judge details
- No style or form information supplied
- All forecasts conditional on decisive result
- Only a weigh-in result is sourced; no fight records provided
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- Probability unchanged
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
d6a09a37325cb16a65a7f1a4eaf50922048e41c152dd2a318924807d52be3bae - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
1a7079e51ec66713dc515571fdce8320210d9ed5f83c51a48e26bff8105dfa1d
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Alexis Rocha defeats Jose Ramirez via unanimous decision (98-91, 98-91, 97-92)
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