Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsCollege Football · Oct 17, 9:30 AM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTMaryland Terrapins RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Maryland Terrapins vs Rutgers Scarlet Knights
66.1%Maryland Terrapins
LOCKED Oct 17, 9:02 AM PDT4/4 independent models select Maryland Terrapins; all four oriented probabilities average 66.13%.
Check the evidence
The most important gap and your next source check.
- Read the model reasons and reported limits.
- Inspect available source context; record missing sources.
- Identify what remains unverified and your next action.
16 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Gemini: Market line favors Maryland by 5.5 points.
- Claude: Market line MD -5.5 implies roughly 70% win probability for Maryland
- Grok: Maryland record 2-4 superior to Rutgers 1-4
- GPT: DraftKings market line lists Maryland -5.5, the strongest signal in the evidence package
Read all four model reports
Gemini · Maryland Terrapins · 68.5%
Maryland is favored by 5.5 points at home against Rutgers. Both teams have losing records, but the market line and home-field advantage suggest Maryland has a solid edge to win outright.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 16, 10:52 PM PDTClaude · Maryland Terrapins · 70.0%
Maryland is the home favorite at SECU Stadium with a DraftKings line of -5.5, which historically converts to roughly a 69-72% win probability for the favorite. Records corroborate the direction of the edge modestly (Maryland 2-4 vs Rutgers 1-4), and neither team is ranked. With no contradictory signals, I anchor close to the market-implied figure and keep a slight shade toward the favorite rather than inflating it, since both teams are struggling and conference games between similar-caliber opponents carry elevated variance.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 16, 10:52 PM PDTGrok · Maryland Terrapins · 62.0%
Maryland holds a better record (2-4 vs 1-4), hosts the game at SECU Stadium, and is favored by 5.5 points on the market line. These factors provide a modest edge for Maryland to win, though both teams have losing records and the margin is narrow.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 16, 10:52 PM PDTGPT · Maryland Terrapins · 64.0%
Maryland is the evidence-backed favorite based on the supplied market line and location. The strongest comparative signal in the package is DraftKings listing Maryland -5.5, which implies Maryland is meaningfully more likely to win than Rutgers on a neutral reading of the current market. Maryland also has home field at SECU Stadium, which supports its edge. The records are both poor and only slightly favor Maryland (2-4 vs 1-4), while neither team is ranked, so those factors add little separation beyond a small lean to Maryland. With no injury, roster, or efficiency data available, the estimate should stay moderate rather than aggressive.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 16, 10:52 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Lack of advanced team efficiency metrics.
- No injury reports or depth chart changes available.
- Weather conditions and other game-day factors are unknown.
- No injury or depth-chart information supplied
- No advanced efficiency, yards-per-play, or turnover metrics available
- No strength-of-schedule context behind the 2-4 and 1-4 records
- Single sportsbook line snapshot; no line movement or market consensus
- No weather or situational (rest/travel) details
What to watch next
Wait for the official result. The locked forecast stays unchanged.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 6.6 percentage points higher for Maryland Terrapins
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
a74dc55b02400f0940e4f4addc82398c182105c9317913ca57065d18b0a0bbc1 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
07017b83ed66c0466c7c91c3bdf89b1a6a66a7d608d21526bed34117719d2c2b
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
No direct source links are attached to this brief. The event page shows the available context.
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Finish your review
Record whether this brief helped, how long the review took, and your next action.
Return to your review →