Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsCollege Football · Oct 10, 12:30 PM PDT FORECASTOregon Ducks RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Oregon Ducks vs UCLA Bruins
76.9%Oregon Ducks
LOCKED Oct 10, 12:01 PM PDT4/4 independent models select Oregon Ducks; all four oriented probabilities average 76.88%.
16 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Grok: Oregon ranked 13, UCLA ranked 21
- Claude: DraftKings spread ORE -10.5 implies ~78-82% win probability
- GPT: DraftKings market line lists Oregon -10.5, the strongest comparative signal in the evidence package.
- Gemini: Oregon is favored by 10.5 points
Read all four model reports
Grok · Oregon Ducks · 74.0%
Oregon enters with a higher ranking (13 vs 21), hosts at Autzen Stadium, and is favored by 10.5 points on the market line. UCLA holds the better record (4-0 vs 3-1), but the combination of ranking, venue, and spread supplies a clear comparative edge for Oregon.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 10, 1:08 AM PDTClaude · Oregon Ducks · 79.0%
The DraftKings line (ORE -10.5) is the strongest single signal and is consistent with Oregon hosting at Autzen Stadium. A double-digit home favorite of 10.5 points historically converts to roughly a 78-82% straight-up win rate. Both teams are ranked (13 and 21) and the record pair (3-1, 4-0) is not clearly attributed to a specific side in the evidence, so the market line carries the comparative weight. Home-field at Autzen plus the market's clear lean supports Oregon near 79%.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 10, 1:08 AM PDTGPT · Oregon Ducks · 76.0%
Oregon is the stronger favorite on the supplied evidence. The most informative signal is the market line of Oregon -10.5 at Autzen Stadium, which implies a clear expected advantage for the Ducks at home. Oregon is also ranked higher (#13 vs #21), which supports that directional edge. UCLA has the better record at 4-0 versus Oregon's 3-1, but record strength is not provided and is outweighed here by the combination of home field, ranking edge, and especially the double-digit market spread. Based only on these immutable facts, Oregon should be favored to win outright, with a win probability in the mid-to-upper 70s rather than near-certainty.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 10, 1:08 AM PDTGemini · Oregon Ducks · 78.5%
Oregon is a 10.5-point home favorite against an undefeated UCLA team. Despite UCLA's 4-0 record, Oregon's higher ranking (13th) and significant market backing suggest a strong home-field advantage and underlying team strength.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 10, 1:08 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No advanced efficiency or metrics available
- Injury and depth-chart data unavailable
- Evidence limited to records, rankings, venue, and spread
- Records (3-1, 4-0) and rankings (13, 21) are not mapped to specific teams in the evidence
- No injury, depth-chart, or availability information provided
- No advanced efficiency, pace, or strength-of-schedule metrics
- Single-provider market line with no line-movement history
- Snapshot current as of 2026-10-10T08:07Z; later news not reflected
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 0.5 percentage points lower for Oregon Ducks
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
cd5ac86a34688b65d0cb0ad74c0693d60332504531e7ce6070171bee65ff93a7 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
38e69d400b92b8e9837dd93af27f5e0e72b22a4764151d0d265f8317509b87cd
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Final
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