Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsCollege Football · Oct 17, 9:00 AM PDT FORECASTPending RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
West Virginia Mountaineers vs Cincinnati Bearcats
—No winner forecast available
LOCKED Oct 17, 8:32 AM PDT4/4 models favor West Virginia Mountaineers, but the mean probability (53.88%) is below the house threshold.
17 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Grok: WVU home game at Milan Puskar Stadium
- Claude: Market line WVU -1.5 implies ~53-56% home win probability
- Gemini: West Virginia is favored by 1.5 points
- GPT: DraftKings market line lists West Virginia -1.5, indicating West Virginia as a slight favorite
Read all four model reports
Grok · West Virginia Mountaineers · 53.0%
Home venue at Milan Puskar Stadium combined with the DraftKings market line of WVU -1.5 supplies the primary comparative signal favoring the Mountaineers. Cincinnati's superior 4-1 record versus WVU's 3-3 is noted but offset by the road environment and the betting market's assessment of a narrow home edge.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 12, 11:53 AM PDTClaude · West Virginia Mountaineers · 55.0%
The only direct comparative signal is the DraftKings line of WVU -1.5 at home in Milan Puskar Stadium. A 1.5-point favorite converts to roughly a 53-56% win probability, so the market views this as nearly a coin flip with a slight lean to West Virginia. Records (WVU 3-3 vs Cincinnati 4-1) actually favor the visitor, which indicates the small home edge is driven mainly by venue and the market's assessment of underlying quality rather than results. With no rankings, injury data, or efficiency metrics supplied, I anchor tightly to the line and avoid moving beyond its implied value.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 12, 11:53 AM PDTGemini · West Virginia Mountaineers · 53.5%
West Virginia is a slight 1.5-point favorite at home despite having a worse record (3-3) than Cincinnati (4-1). The market line suggests a close game, giving the Mountaineers a slight edge due to home-field advantage.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 12, 11:53 AM PDTGPT · West Virginia Mountaineers · 54.0%
West Virginia gets a small edge based on the only direct comparative signal in the evidence package: the market line lists WVU -1.5 at home, which implies West Virginia is a slight favorite despite having the worse record (3-3 vs 4-1). Home venue at Milan Puskar Stadium supports that modest advantage. The better Cincinnati record is a counter-signal, so this should remain close to a coin flip rather than a strong lean. With no rankings and no injury or efficiency context, the best evidence-bounded estimate is a narrow West Virginia win probability in the low-to-mid 50s.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 12, 11:53 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Injuries and depth-chart changes unavailable
- Advanced efficiency metrics unavailable
- Only current scoreboard facts and market line provided
- Game occurs in 2026 so no historical head-to-head data in package
- No injury, availability, or depth-chart information
- No advanced efficiency, strength-of-schedule, or opponent-quality data
- Single sportsbook line with no line-movement history
- Records lack context (conference vs non-conference, margins)
What to watch next
Wait for the official result. The locked forecast stays unchanged.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- First recorded forecast
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
d9eb178704d296bb4979da231ef1f33d9e31efded5180040e570af60d73d9cd7 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
cfbb56ff26a912c28b92a1b58c29ad22403fcf4dcd642365724402428df8ced9
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
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Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
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