Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsNFL · Sep 20, 1:05 PM PDT FORECASTLos Angeles Chargers RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Las Vegas Raiders vs Los Angeles Chargers
70.3%Los Angeles Chargers
LOCKED Sep 20, 12:35 PM PDT4/4 independent models select Los Angeles Chargers; all four oriented probabilities average 70.25%.
16 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: Market line LAC -6.5 implies roughly a 72-75% home win probability
- Grok: Chargers -6.5 home spread
- Gemini: Los Angeles Chargers are 6.5-point home favorites
- GPT: DraftKings market line lists Los Angeles Chargers -6.5
Read all four model reports
Claude · Los Angeles Chargers · 73.0%
The DraftKings line of LAC -6.5 at SoFi Stadium is the single strongest piece of evidence, and a home favorite of that size historically wins roughly 72-75% of the time. The low total (43.5) implies an expected lower-scoring game, which slightly compresses variance but does not meaningfully change the favorite's edge. Early-season records (LV 1-0, LAC 0-1) are one-game samples and carry far less signal than the market price, which already incorporates roster and Week 1 information. No injury or weather data is provided, so I stay near the market-implied number rather than deviating from it.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Sep 15, 9:11 PM PDTGrok · Los Angeles Chargers · 67.0%
Chargers are 6.5-point home favorites per DraftKings market line despite 0-1 record versus Raiders' 1-0 mark. Home status at SoFi Stadium plus the spread imply Chargers are the stronger side entering week 2. Early-season records provide minimal signal and no team statistics or quarterback information are supplied, so the market line is the dominant comparative evidence.
xai/grok-4.3 · Sep 15, 9:11 PM PDTGemini · Los Angeles Chargers · 73.0%
The Los Angeles Chargers are favored by 6.5 points at home against the Las Vegas Raiders. A 6.5-point spread typically translates to a win probability of approximately 72-74% for the favorite, despite the Raiders' 1-0 start compared to the Chargers' 0-1 record.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Sep 15, 9:11 PM PDTGPT · Los Angeles Chargers · 68.0%
The strongest comparative evidence in the package is the market spread: Chargers -6.5 at home. An NFL spread of this size generally implies the home team is a clear favorite to win outright, and it outweighs the small early-season record difference of Raiders 1-0 versus Chargers 0-1. The Chargers also have home field at SoFi Stadium. With no usable injury or quarterback detail beyond empty lists, the estimate should stay bounded and not become overly certain, but the supplied line still supports Los Angeles as the more likely winner.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Sep 15, 9:11 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Injury lists for both teams are empty, so no availability or quarterback status can be confirmed
- No moneyline odds supplied; win probability inferred from the point spread
- Weather data is null, though SoFi Stadium is an indoor-style venue per venue listing
- Records reflect only one game each, providing minimal performance signal
- No team statistics, depth charts, or Week 1 results detail included in the package
- No team statistics, advanced metrics, or quarterback details available
- Injury reports empty and noted as potentially incomplete
- Week-2 records carry low predictive value
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- First recorded forecast
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
af182ffca8329efd9055363b070b287b50b90f1d7c0edc0d83f9e0dfc7fc1922 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
57ddae97ead2652769a14ff0633d325959448f97ccd28e82e300c032f5d2797f
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
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Recorded outcome: Las Vegas Raiders 26, Los Angeles Chargers 14
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