College Football · Oct 17, 7:15 PM PDT

Colorado Buffaloes vs Utah Utes

75.5%Utah Utes

NOT LOCKED

4/4 independent models select Utah Utes; all four oriented probabilities average 75.5%.

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FORECASTUtah Utes

Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.

RELIABILITY4/4 model reports

18 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.

MARKET VALUENot established

A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.

Why the models lean this way

These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.

Claude: Utah 4-0 and ranked No. 12; Colorado 2-3 and unranked
Gemini: Utah's undefeated 4-0 record
Grok: Utah 4-0 record versus Colorado 2-3
GPT: Utah is 4-0 while Colorado is 2-3

Read all four model reports

Claude · Utah Utes · 79.0%

Utah enters undefeated at 4-0 and ranked No. 12 nationally, while Colorado is 2-3 and unranked. That is a substantial gap in both résumé and perceived quality. The only meaningful offset is venue: the game is at Folsom Field, so Colorado has home-field advantage worth roughly 2-3 points, which trims but does not erase a double-digit talent/form edge. With no market line supplied, I anchor on an implied spread of roughly 9-12 points in Utah's favor after the home adjustment, which maps to about a 78-82% win probability. I settle near 79% to respect the elevated variance of conference road games and the absence of injury or efficiency data.

anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 10, 4:08 PM PDT

Gemini · Utah Utes · 82.0%

Utah is undefeated at 4-0 and ranked #12 in the nation, indicating a strong performance level this season. Colorado is struggling with a 2-3 record and remains unranked. Although Colorado has home-field advantage at Folsom Field, Utah's superior record and national ranking make them the clear favorite to win this matchup.

google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 10, 4:08 PM PDT

Grok · Utah Utes · 68.0%

Utah holds a 4-0 record and #12 ranking against Colorado's 2-3 mark and unranked status. The home venue at Folsom Field provides Colorado some counterbalance, but the gap in current performance indicators favors Utah to win on the road.

xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 10, 4:08 PM PDT

GPT · Utah Utes · 73.0%

Using only the supplied evidence, Utah has the clearly stronger point-in-time profile: a 4-0 record versus Colorado's 2-3, plus a No. 12 ranking while Colorado is unranked. Colorado does have home-field advantage at Folsom Field, which pulls the estimate back somewhat, but the combined record and ranking signals still make Utah the more likely winner. With no market line, injuries, or advanced efficiency data, the estimate should remain moderate rather than aggressive.

openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 10, 4:08 PM PDT

What remains uncertain

No market line provided to calibrate the implied spread
No injury, availability, or depth-chart information
No advanced efficiency metrics, SOS, or scoring margins
No head-to-head or common-opponent results supplied
Game status listed as TBD kickoff; conditions and weather unknown
Records reflect data as of 2026-10-10 and may change before kickoff
No market line available to gauge betting sentiment
Lack of advanced statistical metrics or strength of schedule data

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What changed before the lock

Oct 10, 4:08 PM PDT · house adjudication completedFirst recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
c29cde40d39736187d45324ec1f0d6d2736fbebc11ee3e4e3936aed24cb11490

Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.

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Available source context

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