Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsTennis · Oct 18, 3:30 AM PDT FORECASTFederico Cina RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Federico Cina vs Remy Bertola
67.0%Federico Cina
NOT LOCKED4/4 independent models select Federico Cina; all four oriented probabilities average 67%.
18 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: Cina has an explicit ATP rank of 147 with 383 points; Bertola has no rank or points supplied
- Grok: Cina ATP rank 147 vs Bertola unranked
- Gemini: Federico Cina is ranked 147th in the world.
- GPT: Federico Cina has an explicit current ATP rank of 147.
Read all four model reports
Claude · Federico Cina · 64.0%
The only discriminating fact is ranking: Federico Cina holds an explicit ATP rank of 147 (up from 150, 383 points), while Remy Bertola has no listed rank or ranking points in the supplied data, which typically implies a lower-ranked or fringe-tour player. Cina's 2-8 season record reflects tour-level main-draw competition where losses to higher-ranked opponents are expected, whereas Bertola's 1-0 is too small a sample to carry weight. In a qualifying final, the ranked player is the modest favorite, but the ranking gap is unquantified and the record data is noisy, so I keep the edge moderate. Surface-specific form, injuries, head-to-head history, travel/fatigue, and market odds are all unavailable in this evidence package.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 17, 8:10 AM PDTGrok · Federico Cina · 68.0%
Cina holds an explicit ATP ranking of 147 with 383 ranking points while Bertola is unranked with null ranking data. Cina's season record is 2-8; Bertola's is 1-0. The ranking differential supplies the only usable differentiator. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable as they are not supplied in the evidence package.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 17, 8:10 AM PDTGemini · Federico Cina · 70.0%
Federico Cina holds an ATP ranking of 147, whereas Remy Bertola is currently unranked. Although Cina has a poor 2-8 season record, his ranking indicates a higher baseline level of play compared to an unranked opponent with only one match played this season. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 17, 8:10 AM PDTGPT · Federico Cina · 66.0%
Federico Cina is the stronger evidence-backed choice because the supplied package shows a current ATP rank of No. 147 with 383 ranking points, while Remy Bertola has no current rank or ranking points supplied in the package. Cina has also improved slightly from previous rank 150 to 147. The season win-loss records are weak for both players in this evidence set: Cina is 2-8 and Bertola is 1-0, but Bertola's record is based on only one recorded match, making it much less informative than Cina's established ranking profile. Because this forecast must use only ranking and current season singles record, the ranking gap in available evidence outweighs the limited season-record edge Bertola has by percentage. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable in the evidence package.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 17, 8:10 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No surface-specific form or indoor hard-court splits provided
- No injury or fitness status for either player
- No head-to-head record supplied
- No travel, rest, or scheduling information
- No market odds or implied probabilities available
- Bertola's absent ranking means the true ranking gap cannot be quantified
- No surface-specific results provided
- No head-to-head data supplied
What to watch next
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Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
3031c5de3e96fa75b8c4a9e54a16d774c36ac5d0024d172374bf3da6e9063c1c
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
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