Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsNFL · Sep 13, 1:25 PM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTLos Angeles Chargers RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Chargers
76.9%Los Angeles Chargers
LOCKED Sep 13, 12:55 PM PDT4/4 independent models select Los Angeles Chargers; all four oriented probabilities average 76.88%.
Check the evidence
The most important gap and your next source check.
- Read the model reasons and reported limits.
- Inspect available source context; record missing sources.
- Identify what remains unverified and your next action.
16 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: DraftKings line LAC -8.5 implies a strong home favorite
- Gemini: Los Angeles Chargers are favored by 8.5 points.
- Grok: LAC listed as 8.5-point home favorite on DraftKings
- GPT: DraftKings market line lists Los Angeles Chargers -8.5
Read all four model reports
Claude · Los Angeles Chargers · 79.0%
The only usable comparative evidence is the market line, LAC -8.5 at home with a 47.5 total. Historically an 8.5-point favorite wins roughly 78-82% of the time; a moderate total slightly favors the favorite versus a shootout scenario. Both teams are 0-0 in Week 1, so no form data can adjust that baseline, and no injury or quarterback detail is supplied to shade either direction. I therefore take the market-implied figure essentially at face value, placing the Chargers around 79%.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Sep 13, 12:45 PM PDTGemini · Los Angeles Chargers · 78.5%
The Los Angeles Chargers are favored by 8.5 points at home against the Arizona Cardinals. In the NFL, an 8.5-point spread typically translates to an implied win probability of approximately 78-79%. As this is a Week 1 matchup with both teams at 0-0, the betting market's point spread serves as the most reliable indicator of expected performance.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Sep 13, 12:40 PM PDTGrok · Los Angeles Chargers · 73.0%
Week 1 matchup with both teams at 0-0 provides no prior performance data. The only comparative evidence is the DraftKings market line listing LAC as an 8.5-point home favorite at SoFi Stadium. Historical NFL outcomes show home teams favored by 7-9 points win approximately 72-75% of the time. No injury or quarterback information is supplied, and the game occurs in the 2026 season opener, limiting direct team-strength comparisons.
xai/grok-4.3 · Sep 13, 12:40 PM PDTGPT · Los Angeles Chargers · 77.0%
The strongest usable evidence is the market spread: Los Angeles is listed as a home favorite of -8.5. In an NFL Week 1 game with both teams at 0-0 and no other comparative performance data supplied, that line is the clearest point-in-time signal of relative win likelihood. A favorite of this size typically implies a substantial straight-up edge, and home field further supports the Chargers. With no moneyline provided and no quarterback/injury specifics beyond empty lists, the estimate should stay bounded and not overstate precision. Based on the supplied evidence alone, Los Angeles is the more likely winner at roughly 77%.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Sep 13, 12:40 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Week 1 of 2026: both teams 0-0, no in-season form data
- No injury or QB availability information supplied for either team
- No moneyline prices provided; win probability inferred from -8.5 spread
- No weather data (indoor venue, likely immaterial)
- No moneyline odds are provided, requiring an estimation based on the point spread.
- No injury reports or starting quarterback details are available.
- Lack of current season performance data due to it being Week 1.
- No team records, stats, or roster details available
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- First recorded forecast
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
bc0fcf28cd10d7a62cc756b39c6a1c6f4ac302bf0450d1ee3b51449b7288ec1f - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
2552997b097a30274e0d45ae1b1ee8643dfbbc05ad31d9395540f069417d1a19
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Arizona Cardinals 26, Los Angeles Chargers 14
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