Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsCollege Football · Oct 10, 10:00 AM PDT FORECASTEast Carolina Pirates RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
East Carolina Pirates vs Rice Owls
76.1%East Carolina Pirates
LOCKED Oct 10, 9:31 AM PDT4/4 independent models select East Carolina Pirates; all four oriented probabilities average 76.13%.
17 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: Market line ECU -10 implies roughly a 75-80% win probability
- Gemini: East Carolina is favored by 10 points
- Grok: ECU 2-2 record vs Rice 1-4 record
- GPT: DraftKings market line lists East Carolina -10, indicating a clear expected edge
Read all four model reports
Claude · East Carolina Pirates · 76.0%
DraftKings lists East Carolina at -10 playing at home in Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium, which is the single most informative supplied signal. A 10-point home favorite in FBS historically converts to roughly a 75-80% straight-up win rate. Supporting evidence aligns: ECU is 2-2 while Rice is 1-4, consistent with a meaningful talent/form gap rather than a line distortion. No ranking information differentiates the teams, and no injury or efficiency data is supplied to adjust away from the market-implied baseline, so I anchor near the spread conversion with a small haircut for unknowns.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 10, 8:38 AM PDTGemini · East Carolina Pirates · 78.5%
East Carolina is a 10-point home favorite against a 1-4 Rice team. A 10-point spread in college football typically translates to a win probability of approximately 78-80% for the favored team.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 10, 8:38 AM PDTGrok · East Carolina Pirates · 72.0%
East Carolina enters at 2-2 while Rice is 1-4. The supplied DraftKings line lists ECU as a 10-point home favorite at Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium, indicating the market views the Pirates as substantially stronger. No rankings are provided for either side. The combination of superior record and double-digit home spread supports a clear but not overwhelming edge for East Carolina.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 10, 8:38 AM PDTGPT · East Carolina Pirates · 78.0%
East Carolina is the stronger side in the supplied evidence package. The Pirates have the better record (2-2 vs 1-4), are at home at Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium, and the only market signal listed is DraftKings ECU -10. A double-digit home spread is a meaningful comparative indicator and is the strongest piece of evidence here. With no rankings for either team and no additional injury or efficiency data allowed, the estimate should not be pushed too high, but the available facts support East Carolina as a clear favorite.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 10, 8:38 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No injury, suspension, or depth-chart information provided
- No advanced efficiency, SP+/FPI, or strength-of-schedule metrics
- Opponent quality behind the 2-2 and 1-4 records is unknown
- Single sportsbook line with no line-movement history
- No weather or travel detail
- Event title lists Rice as nominal home side while venue is ECU's stadium, a minor inconsistency
- No advanced team efficiency metrics provided
- No injury reports or depth-chart changes available
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 0.1 percentage points lower for East Carolina Pirates
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
f5718a36793e4ff6882ccd497fe39d3c0bacc1312f337c59c743c6b769f2d787 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
c59138b09dcbb94603edeacf27049341f83bef3e6ed2e0b26f20f671a42ca9d9
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Final
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