Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsTennis · Oct 16, 3:10 AM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTDaniil Medvedev RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established Current TORK64.5% Simple average64.5% Calibrated average65.9% Kalshi68.0% Inspect the methods and progress →
Tommy Paul vs Daniil Medvedev
64.5%Daniil Medvedev
LOCKED Oct 16, 2:30 AM PDT4/4 independent models select Daniil Medvedev; all four oriented probabilities average 64.5%.
Check the evidence
The most important gap and your next source check.
- Read the model reasons and reported limits.
- Inspect available source context; record missing sources.
- Identify what remains unverified and your next action.
20 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Gemini: Medvedev is ranked No. 6 with 3,860 ranking points.
- Claude: Medvedev ranked No. 6 (3860 pts) vs Paul No. 18 (2375 pts) — sizeable but not extreme gap
- Grok: Medvedev's higher ranking position (6 compared to Paul's 18)
- GPT: Medvedev holds the better current ATP rank: No. 6 vs Paul at No. 18.
Read all four model reports
Gemini · Daniil Medvedev · 68.0%
Daniil Medvedev holds a clear statistical advantage over Tommy Paul based on the provided evidence. Medvedev is ranked No. 6 with 3,860 points and three singles titles this season, compared to Paul's No. 18 ranking, 2,375 points, and one title. Both players have strong season records, with Medvedev at 41-17 and Paul at 39-18, but Medvedev's higher ranking and greater title count suggest a higher level of consistent elite performance. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable, limiting the precision of this forecast.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 15, 5:02 PM PDTClaude · Daniil Medvedev · 61.0%
Only two evidence streams are supplied: current ESPN rankings and season singles records. Medvedev holds a meaningful ranking edge (No. 6, 3860 points, stable from previous rank 6) over Paul (No. 18, 2375 points, slipped from 16), and a slightly better season record (41-17, .707 vs 39-18, .684) with three titles to one. A roughly 12-place ranking gap and ~1,485-point difference typically translates to a modest-to-moderate favorite, not a dominant one, especially in a Masters quarterfinal where both players have already shown form this week. Surface-specific form, injury status, head-to-head history, travel/fatigue, and market odds are all unavailable, so the estimate is anchored narrowly on ranking and win-loss differentials and is held near 60% rather than pushed higher.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 15, 5:01 PM PDTGrok · Daniil Medvedev · 65.0%
Daniil Medvedev holds a superior current ranking (6 vs 18), higher ranking points (3860 vs 2375), and a comparable but slightly better season singles record (41 wins, 17 losses vs 39-18). This indicates Medvedev as the stronger player based on available data. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable as they are not supplied in the evidence.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 15, 5:01 PM PDTGPT · Daniil Medvedev · 64.0%
Using only the supplied evidence, Daniil Medvedev has the stronger pre-match profile. He is ranked No. 6 versus Tommy Paul at No. 18, a meaningful ranking edge, and he also has a slightly better 2026 singles record (41-17 vs 39-18) plus more titles this season (3 vs 1). Those facts indicate Medvedev has been the stronger player overall this season. The edge is not overwhelming because both players have strong win-loss records and are deep in a Masters quarterfinal, so Paul is clearly competitive. Surface-specific form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable in the evidence package, which limits precision.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 15, 5:01 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Surface-specific form is unavailable.
- Injury reports are not supplied.
- Head-to-head records are absent.
- Travel factors are not provided.
- Market odds are unavailable.
- No surface-specific (hard-court) form or set-level data supplied
- No injury or fitness information available
- Head-to-head record not provided
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 1.0 percentage points higher for Daniil Medvedev
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
9318d62ac44a8739166faecbb0919b7fe9cbf38c56a18e19c23605dd7c336d7f - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
75b5dbf98e37d3323585e408271e899d6599f415c7e3ddaed0bc5374d5ac358f
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
All probabilities below refer to Daniil Medvedev. Model inputs were fixed at Oct 16, 2:30 AM PDT. The market was observed at Oct 16, 2:25 AM PDT.
Comparison record
Saved Oct 16, 2:30 AM PDT. This is a research comparison; no method has been promoted.
c786b5debbff404a6702c6af16c6f05679c588d6319fb90a166bfc78e5e643adAvailable source context
site.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗site.api.espn.com ↗
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: (5) Daniil Medvedev (RUS) bt (15) Tommy Paul (USA) 6-3 1-6 6-3
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