Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsTennis · Oct 14, 12:05 AM PDT FORECASTFelix Auger-Aliassime RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established Current TORK68.0% Simple average68.0% Calibrated average69.7% Kalshi58.0% Inspect the methods and progress →
Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Casper Ruud
68.0%Felix Auger-Aliassime
LOCKED Oct 13, 10:00 PM PDT4/4 independent models select Felix Auger-Aliassime; all four oriented probabilities average 68%.
22 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Gemini: Auger-Aliassime is ranked No. 5, while Ruud is No. 24.
- Grok: Current rank 5 vs 24
- Claude: Ranking gap: No. 5 vs No. 24 with 3890 vs 2145 ranking points
- GPT: Felix Auger-Aliassime is ranked No. 5; Casper Ruud is ranked No. 24.
Read all four model reports
Gemini · Felix Auger-Aliassime · 68.0%
Felix Auger-Aliassime holds a significant ranking advantage (No. 5 vs No. 24) and has accumulated nearly double the ranking points of Casper Ruud (3890 vs 2145). Auger-Aliassime also boasts a superior season win-loss record (35-17, 67.3% win rate) compared to Ruud (28-17, 62.2% win rate) and has secured a singles title this season, making him the clear statistical favorite.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 13, 5:01 PM PDTGrok · Felix Auger-Aliassime · 68.0%
Felix Auger-Aliassime holds a substantially superior current rank (5 vs 24), ranking points (3890 vs 2145), season win total (35 vs 28), and title count (1 vs 0) with identical loss totals. These supplied facts indicate a clear edge for Felix. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable as they are not supplied in the evidence package.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 13, 5:01 PM PDTClaude · Felix Auger-Aliassime · 68.0%
Auger-Aliassime holds a clear ranking edge (No. 5 vs No. 24) with nearly double the ranking points (3890 vs 2145), a stable ranking trend (unchanged vs Ruud slipping from 21 to 24), a better season record (35-17, .673 vs 28-17, .622), and the only title between them this season. A roughly 19-place ranking gap at Masters-level Round 4 typically translates to around a 65-70% win probability for the higher-ranked player. Surface-specific form, injury status, head-to-head history, travel/fatigue, and market odds are all unavailable in this evidence package, so the estimate is anchored only on ranking and season win-loss data and is held near the base rate rather than pushed to an extreme.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 13, 5:01 PM PDTGPT · Felix Auger-Aliassime · 68.0%
Using only the supplied evidence, Felix Auger-Aliassime has the stronger profile entering this match. He is ranked No. 5 versus Casper Ruud at No. 24, with substantially more ranking points (3890 vs 2145). His season record is also stronger at 35-17 compared with Ruud’s 28-17, giving Auger-Aliassime both more total wins and a better win percentage. Auger-Aliassime also has 1 singles title this season while Ruud has 0, which modestly supports the same direction. Based on rank and season results alone, Auger-Aliassime should be favored, though not overwhelmingly because both players have solid records and the evidence package does not include important match-level factors. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable here.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 13, 5:01 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Surface-specific form is not supplied.
- Injuries are not supplied.
- Head-to-head records are not supplied.
- Travel factors are not supplied.
- Market odds are not supplied.
- Surface-specific form unavailable
- Injuries unavailable
- Head-to-head unavailable
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 0.3 percentage points higher for Felix Auger-Aliassime
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
24aaf5b27b40751ccbafc29c011e62913390064f5341cff9d40dd90d995e8d9b - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
b0d269822fbad998e4c3c36683e3fd2072ec08ffc33e28b12b4aa7129220755d
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
All probabilities below refer to Felix Auger-Aliassime. Model inputs were fixed at Oct 13, 10:00 PM PDT. The market was observed at Oct 13, 9:55 PM PDT.
Comparison record
Saved Oct 13, 10:04 PM PDT. This is a research comparison; no method has been promoted.
df214f7a83273cc540aaf7432c41c1ba04e17b9e48a06b6753828fee101274dbAvailable source context
site.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗site.api.espn.com ↗
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: (20) Casper Ruud (NOR) bt (4) Felix Auger-Aliassime (CAN) 5-2 ret
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