Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsCollege Football · Oct 10, 9:30 AM PDT FORECASTNorthwestern Wildcats RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Northwestern Wildcats vs Ball State Cardinals
95.3%Northwestern Wildcats
LOCKED Oct 10, 9:01 AM PDT4/4 independent models select Northwestern Wildcats; all four oriented probabilities average 95.25%.
16 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Gemini: Market line favors Northwestern by 34.5 points
- Claude: Market line NU -34.5 implies ~97-98% moneyline win probability
- Grok: Northwestern 3-1 record versus Ball State 1-4 record
- GPT: Market line strongly favors Northwestern: -34.5
Read all four model reports
Gemini · Northwestern Wildcats · 99.0%
Northwestern is a massive 34.5-point favorite at home against a struggling 1-4 Ball State team. A spread this large implies a near certainty of winning the game outright, as upsets of this magnitude are exceedingly rare in college football.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 10, 7:53 AM PDTClaude · Northwestern Wildcats · 97.0%
DraftKings lists Northwestern as a 34.5-point home favorite, an enormous line that historically corresponds to roughly a 97-98% straight-up win probability. This is corroborated by the records (Northwestern 3-1 vs Ball State 1-4), the Power-conference vs MAC gap, and home field at Ryan Field. I shade marginally below the raw market implication to account for unknown injuries/availability and inherent single-game variance.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 10, 7:53 AM PDTGrok · Northwestern Wildcats · 92.0%
Northwestern enters at 3-1 while Ball State is 1-4. The DraftKings market line lists NU -34.5 at home in Ryan Field, indicating a massive talent and preparation gap consistent with Power-conference versus Group-of-Five matchup expectations.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 10, 7:53 AM PDTGPT · Northwestern Wildcats · 93.0%
Northwestern is the clear favorite on the supplied evidence. The comparative signals all point the same way: Northwestern has the better record (3-1 vs 1-4), is listed as a very large home favorite at Ryan Field, and the market spread of Northwestern -34.5 is the strongest single indicator in the evidence package. A spread of that size generally implies a very high straight-up win probability for the favorite. With no conflicting ranking or record evidence, the best evidence-bounded estimate is that Northwestern wins the game the large majority of the time.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 10, 7:53 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Missing advanced team efficiency metrics
- No injury reports or depth chart changes provided
- Weather conditions are unknown
- No injury, QB status, or depth-chart information provided
- No advanced efficiency metrics (SP+, FEI, EPA) supplied
- No strength-of-schedule context behind the 3-1 and 1-4 records
- No explicit moneyline price; probability inferred from spread conversion
- Weather and travel conditions unknown
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 10.9 percentage points higher for Northwestern Wildcats
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
4202d785ccc3fb6ef7ebaa2cfe22fb28d7594754198845f1f893555e7c827f66 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
b784e4e49acb6637385d4dc22dcd93e491292d4ba19f03be86c7ffdaa5384e46
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Final
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