Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsNFL · Oct 25, 6:30 AM PDT FORECASTPittsburgh Steelers RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Pittsburgh Steelers vs New Orleans Saints
58.4%Pittsburgh Steelers
NOT LOCKED4/4 independent models select Pittsburgh Steelers; all four oriented probabilities average 58.38%.
17 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Gemini: Pittsburgh is favored by 2.5 points
- Claude: Market line PIT -2.5 implies Pittsburgh is a small favorite (~57-60%)
- GPT: Pittsburgh record: 3-2; New Orleans record: 1-4
- Grok: PIT 3-2 record vs NO 1-4 record
Read all four model reports
Gemini · Pittsburgh Steelers · 58.5%
The Pittsburgh Steelers are 2.5-point favorites over the New Orleans Saints at a neutral site (Stade de France). With a 3-2 record compared to the Saints' 1-4, the Steelers are the expected winner. A 2.5-point spread typically translates to a win probability of around 58-59%.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 13, 12:25 PM PDTClaude · Pittsburgh Steelers · 59.0%
DraftKings lists Pittsburgh at -2.5 on a neutral field in Paris, which maps to roughly a 57-60% win probability for the favorite. Records reinforce the direction: Pittsburgh 3-2 versus New Orleans 1-4. Because the game is at Stade de France, the Saints receive no meaningful home-field edge, so the modest market edge is essentially a pure quality gap. Absent moneylines or injury detail, I anchor to the spread-implied conversion and settle slightly below 60% given the small margin and the variance of a neutral-site international game.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 13, 12:25 PM PDTGPT · Pittsburgh Steelers · 59.0%
Pittsburgh has the stronger evidence package on both available comparatives: a better record (3-2 versus 1-4) and the market making the Steelers a 2.5-point favorite on a neutral international field rather than at New Orleans. Those signals support Pittsburgh as the likelier winner, but only by a modest margin rather than an overwhelming one. The absence of moneyline pricing, weather, and meaningful injury detail limits precision, so the estimate stays in the upper-50s rather than higher.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 13, 12:25 PM PDTGrok · Pittsburgh Steelers · 57.0%
PIT enters at 3-2 while NO is 1-4. The DraftKings line lists PIT as a 2.5-point favorite on a neutral-site field in France. These two data points converge on a modest edge for Pittsburgh. Absence of injury or quarterback information prevents a sharper estimate.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 13, 12:25 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No moneyline odds provided, requiring estimation from the point spread
- No injury or quarterback details available
- Weather information is missing
- No moneyline prices provided; probability derived from spread conversion
- Injury lists are empty for both teams and may simply be unpublished at data capture
- No quarterback status or depth-chart information
- No weather data (though likely a non-factor at a European stadium)
- Evidence captured 2026-10-13, nearly two weeks before kickoff; line and availability may move
What to watch next
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- First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
faf3f6e97bb6503d3b5b0c89cbffee358b2223bbd59e69c68a3c79347c34a0e0
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
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