Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsCollege Football · Oct 14, 4:30 PM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTKennesaw State Owls RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Missouri State Bears vs Kennesaw State Owls
56.9%Kennesaw State Owls
LOCKED Oct 14, 4:02 PM PDT4/4 independent models select Kennesaw State Owls; all four oriented probabilities average 56.88%.
Check the evidence
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- Read the model reasons and reported limits.
- Inspect available source context; record missing sources.
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16 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Gemini: Kennesaw State is a 2.5-point favorite.
- Claude: DraftKings line KENN -2.5 is the sole comparative signal
- Grok: Identical 1-4 records for both teams
- GPT: Both teams are 1-4, so record provides no edge.
Read all four model reports
Gemini · Kennesaw State Owls · 57.5%
Kennesaw State is favored by 2.5 points on the road against Missouri State. Both teams have identical 1-4 records, but the betting market indicates Kennesaw State is slightly stronger, giving them an implied win probability of around 57.5% despite playing away from home.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 14, 10:23 AM PDTClaude · Kennesaw State Owls · 57.0%
Both teams enter 1-4, so records give no separation. The only comparative signal is the DraftKings line: Kennesaw State -2.5 despite the game being at Missouri State's Robert W. Plaster Stadium. A road favorite of 2.5 implies roughly 4-6 points of neutral-field edge, which historically maps to about a 56-59% win probability. I anchor near the low end of that band given no injury, depth-chart, or efficiency data to refine the market read.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 14, 10:23 AM PDTGrok · Kennesaw State Owls · 57.0%
Both teams enter with identical 1-4 records and no rankings supplied. The DraftKings market line lists Kennesaw State as a 2.5-point favorite despite playing at Missouri State's home venue, implying the oddsmakers view Kennesaw State as the stronger side by roughly a field goal after home-field adjustment. This produces a modest edge for Kennesaw State in estimated win probability.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 14, 10:23 AM PDTGPT · Kennesaw State Owls · 56.0%
The immutable evidence shows both teams have identical 1-4 records and no rankings, so the main comparative signal is the market line. DraftKings lists Kennesaw State as a 2.5-point favorite, which indicates Kennesaw is viewed as slightly more likely to win despite Missouri State playing at Robert W. Plaster Stadium. Because the records are equal and there is no ranking separation, the edge comes primarily from that modest market preference, keeping the estimate fairly close to 50-50 rather than making it decisive.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 14, 10:23 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No advanced team efficiency metrics are available.
- No injury reports or depth chart changes are provided.
- Weather conditions and other situational factors are unknown.
- No injury, suspension, or depth-chart information supplied
- No advanced efficiency, SP+/FPI, or strength-of-schedule data
- Records given without opponent context or margin detail
- No rankings for either team
- Single-provider market line; no line movement or consensus available
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- Selection changed from Missouri State Bears to Kennesaw State Owls
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
756679bc245553b62b6818c50ffde35093f6c5c76f3b89683fde8033fea3d93f - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
a909aaa318467bba60653ac71edff4a79e67588819ad49238e9e0818d33d2b0b
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Final
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