Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsNFL · Sep 20, 10:00 AM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTNew England Patriots RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Pittsburgh Steelers vs New England Patriots
63.8%New England Patriots
LOCKED Sep 20, 9:30 AM PDT4/4 independent models select New England Patriots; all four oriented probabilities average 63.75%.
Check the evidence
The most important gap and your next source check.
- Read the model reasons and reported limits.
- Inspect available source context; record missing sources.
- Identify what remains unverified and your next action.
17 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Gemini: New England is a 4.5-point home favorite.
- Grok: NE listed as 4.5-point home favorite on DraftKings
- Claude: DraftKings line NE -4.5 makes New England a clear home favorite
- GPT: DraftKings lists New England as a 4.5-point favorite.
Read all four model reports
Gemini · New England Patriots · 67.0%
The New England Patriots are favored by 4.5 points at home against the Pittsburgh Steelers. A -4.5 point spread typically translates to a win probability of approximately 66-68% for the favored team, indicating the market expects New England to win despite their 0-1 start compared to the Steelers' 1-0 record.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Sep 15, 9:10 PM PDTGrok · New England Patriots · 58.0%
The only comparative signals are the 2026 week-2 records (PIT 1-0, NE 0-1) and the DraftKings market line listing NE as a 4.5-point home favorite. Home-field advantage at Gillette Stadium plus the spread together imply a modest edge for New England despite the inferior record. No team-strength metrics, quarterback information, or completed injury reports are supplied, so the probability is anchored narrowly to the spread and venue.
xai/grok-4.3 · Sep 15, 9:10 PM PDTClaude · New England Patriots · 68.0%
The only meaningful comparative evidence is the market line: New England -4.5 at home. Historically a 4.5-point favorite wins roughly 68-70% of the time. The low over/under (41.5) implies a lower-scoring game, which modestly increases variance-adjusted value of points and nudges the favorite's win probability slightly upward, but the absence of moneyline pricing and injury/QB detail argues for staying near the baseline conversion. Team records at Week 2 add negligible information and are already embedded in the line. I select New England at approximately 68%.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Sep 15, 9:10 PM PDTGPT · New England Patriots · 62.0%
The strongest comparative evidence in the package is the market line: New England is a 4.5-point home favorite. That implies the Patriots are more likely than not to win, and materially so. The only other comparative team evidence is the early record snapshot (Pittsburgh 1-0, New England 0-1), but a one-game record is weak and generally less informative than a current market spread. Home field also aligns with New England’s advantage because the game is at Gillette Stadium. Balancing the market-implied edge against the limited week-2 sample and missing quarterback/injury detail, New England is the better evidence-bounded choice, with an estimated win probability in the low 60s.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Sep 15, 9:10 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No direct moneyline odds are provided, requiring an estimation of win probability from the point spread.
- No injury or quarterback information is available in the provided evidence.
- This is a Week 2 game, meaning team records are based on a very small sample size.
- No advanced team or player statistics provided
- Injury reports empty and explicitly noted as incomplete
- Weather unavailable
- Market line lacks moneyline odds or totals-derived probabilities
- No moneyline odds provided; probability derived from spread conversion only
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- First recorded forecast
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
98848bd7446e929aad221046fe5a8c4427d3b8cd75b4e148e43364582d8302e3 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
17aaf5b2125e8cf3371ef08f2b0e11a8658ebb4ef602ca35480dd95649839f0b
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Pittsburgh Steelers 3, New England Patriots 20
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