Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsNFL · Sep 27, 10:00 AM PDT FORECASTKansas City Chiefs RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Kansas City Chiefs vs Miami Dolphins
80.0%Kansas City Chiefs
LOCKED Sep 27, 9:30 AM PDT4/4 independent models select Kansas City Chiefs; all four oriented probabilities average 80%.
16 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: DraftKings spread KC -10 as road favorite implies ~80% win probability
- Gemini: Market spread favors Kansas City by 10 points (KC -10).
- Grok: KC 2-0 record vs MIA 0-2 record
- GPT: Kansas City is 2-0; Miami is 0-2.
Read all four model reports
Claude · Kansas City Chiefs · 80.0%
DraftKings lists KC -10 on the road, which is a large favorite line; a 10-point road spread historically converts to roughly an 78-82% win probability. Supporting context aligns: Kansas City is 2-0, Miami is 0-2 at home. The only mild offsets are road/travel to Miami (early-season heat at Hard Rock Stadium, 1pm ET kickoff) and the absence of any moneyline or injury data to refine the estimate. I settle at 80% for the Chiefs, essentially the market-implied figure with a small haircut for unreported availability risk.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Sep 25, 4:45 PM PDTGemini · Kansas City Chiefs · 83.0%
The Kansas City Chiefs are significant 10-point road favorites against the Miami Dolphins. The Chiefs enter the game undefeated at 2-0, while the Dolphins are winless at 0-2. In the NFL, a 10-point spread typically translates to an implied win probability of approximately 80% to 85% for the favorite.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Sep 25, 4:45 PM PDTGrok · Kansas City Chiefs · 78.0%
KC enters at 2-0 while MIA is 0-2. The DraftKings market line lists KC as a 10-point road favorite, indicating a substantial talent and form edge despite the venue. No injury data contradicts this assessment. The 10-point spread typically maps to a 75-82% implied win probability for the favorite in NFL games.
xai/grok-4.3 · Sep 25, 4:45 PM PDTGPT · Kansas City Chiefs · 79.0%
Kansas City has the stronger evidence profile in the package: a 2-0 record versus Miami at 0-2, plus a market spread of Chiefs -10 on the road. A double-digit spread is strong comparative evidence that Kansas City is materially more likely to win than Miami. Home field for the Dolphins matters somewhat, but the supplied line already implies Kansas City is clearly superior in this matchup. With no usable quarterback, injury, or weather detail beyond empty/incomplete fields, the estimate should rely primarily on the spread and records, which point decisively to Kansas City but still leave meaningful upset risk.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Sep 25, 4:45 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Injury lists are empty for both teams; QB status unverified
- No moneyline odds provided, only the spread and total
- Weather data is null despite known late-September Miami heat/humidity risk
- Only two games of 2026 form; small-sample records
- No line-movement history or opening number to gauge market drift
- No direct moneyline odds were provided, requiring a spread-to-probability conversion.
- Injury reports for both teams are currently empty or unavailable.
- Weather conditions for the game are not provided.
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 7.4 percentage points higher for Kansas City Chiefs
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
c235b86f996add9fed8d9018d044ba943f1958ef83e75493bdb1b3ba9888ac5b - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
ec98f2f813ad3e820be265ce9bc6f29e64919c73cfdb73c956b2eb856eea7df0
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Kansas City Chiefs 24, Miami Dolphins 10
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