Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsNFL · Oct 25, 10:00 AM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTHouston Texans RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
New York Giants vs Houston Texans
67.3%Houston Texans
NOT LOCKED4/4 independent models select Houston Texans; all four oriented probabilities average 67.25%.
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- Read the model reasons and reported limits.
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18 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Grok: Houston Texans listed as 7-point home favorites on DraftKings
- Gemini: Houston Texans are 7-point home favorites.
- Claude: DraftKings line HOU -7 at home implies roughly 70-73% Houston win probability
- GPT: Houston is the home team.
Read all four model reports
Grok · Houston Texans · 61.0%
The supplied market line establishes Houston as a clear home favorite by seven points, outweighing the Giants' superior early-season record for the purpose of this forecast. The seven-point spread implies a moderate-to-strong home edge that is only partially offset by the record disparity, producing a win probability modestly above 50 percent for the Texans.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 13, 12:31 PM PDTGemini · Houston Texans · 74.0%
Despite the New York Giants holding a superior 3-1-1 record compared to the Houston Texans' 1-4 start, the betting market heavily favors the Texans with a -7 point spread. A 7-point home favorite typically translates to an implied win probability of around 73-75%. The significant discrepancy between the teams' records and the point spread suggests underlying factors (such as injuries, schedule strength, or recent performance metrics) that strongly favor Houston, and the market line remains the most predictive evidence available.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 13, 12:31 PM PDTClaude · Houston Texans · 66.0%
The only quantitative market signal supplied, DraftKings HOU -7 at home, typically maps to roughly a 70-73% home win probability. That is the single most informative input available. However, it conflicts sharply with the recorded standings (Houston 1-4, New York 3-1-1), which on their own would favor the Giants. I resolve toward the market because closing/posted spreads generally outperform raw records as predictors, but I shade the implied probability down materially to account for the unexplained conflict, the early (roughly 12-day pre-kickoff) line snapshot, and the complete absence of quarterback or injury detail that might explain why the market discounts Houston's poor record.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 13, 12:31 PM PDTGPT · Houston Texans · 68.0%
The strongest comparative evidence in the package is the market spread: Houston is a 7-point home favorite, which usually implies a clearly better-than-even chance to win. That outweighs the current records alone, which point the other way because the Giants are 3-1-1 and the Texans are 1-4. With no quarterback, injury, or weather detail available to explain the discrepancy, the best evidence-bounded forecast is to follow the market while discounting confidence somewhat because the records and spread pull in opposite directions.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 13, 12:30 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Records and single market line are the only comparative signals supplied
- No quarterback, roster, or advanced metrics available
- Injury reports listed as empty but explicitly noted as potentially incomplete
- Game occurs 12 days after data_current_at timestamp
- No moneyline odds are provided, requiring the win probability to be estimated solely from the point spread.
- No injury reports or detailed team statistics are available, which might explain the stark contrast between the teams' records and the betting line.
- The game is nearly two weeks away from the data current date, leaving ample time for conditions to change.
- Injury lists for both teams are empty, likely incomplete rather than genuinely clean
What to watch next
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Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
aa9858e09be7d08ecddd37ef78fb36f9b71cdd0676a747610f0ecbb7a0f7b23b
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
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