Tennis · Oct 17, 7:30 PM PDT

Kayla Day vs Maya Joint

56.8%Maya Joint

NOT LOCKED

4/4 independent models select Maya Joint; all four oriented probabilities average 56.75%.

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FORECASTMaya Joint

Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.

RELIABILITY4/4 model reports

18 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.

MARKET VALUENot established

A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.

Why the models lean this way

These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.

Gemini: Maya Joint's higher WTA ranking (92 vs 119)
Grok: Maya Joint current rank 92 and 824 points vs Kayla Day rank 119 and 614 points
Claude: Joint ranked 92 vs Day 119; 824 vs 614 ranking points
GPT: Maya Joint is ranked higher: No. 92 vs Kayla Day No. 119.

Read all four model reports

Gemini · Maya Joint · 56.0%

Maya Joint holds a higher ranking (92) and more ranking points (824) than Kayla Day (119 rank, 614 points). However, Kayla Day has a proven strong season record of 45-19, while Joint's win-loss data is missing, making this a closely contested matchup where Joint is a slight favorite based on overall tour standing.

google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 17, 1:40 AM PDT

Grok · Maya Joint · 58.0%

Maya Joint holds the superior current ranking (92 vs 119) and ranking points (824 vs 614). Kayla Day's 45-19 singles record is noted but Maya Joint's win-loss data is absent. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable as not supplied in evidence.

xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 17, 1:40 AM PDT

Claude · Maya Joint · 55.0%

Only ranking data and one partial season record are supplied. Maya Joint is ranked 92 with 824 ranking points versus Kayla Day at 119 with 614 points, a modest ~27-place edge that historically translates to only a slight win-probability advantage. Day's 45-19 season record (.703) is solid but, given her relatively low points total, likely includes a substantial share of lower-tier (ITF/125) wins, so it does not clearly offset the ranking gap; Joint's record is not supplied for comparison. Both players are trending down in ranking (Joint 75->92, Day 112->119), which is neutral. Surface-specific form, injuries, head-to-head history, travel/fatigue, and market odds are all unavailable, so the estimate stays close to a near-coin-flip with a small lean to the higher-ranked player.

anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 17, 1:40 AM PDT

GPT · Maya Joint · 58.0%

Using only the supplied evidence, Maya Joint has the stronger ranking profile: current rank No. 92 versus Kayla Day at No. 119, with more ranking points (824 vs 614). That is the clearest comparable signal available for both players and suggests Joint should be favored. Kayla Day does have a strong supplied 2026 singles record at 45-19, which argues she is competitive and meaningfully narrows the gap. However, Maya Joint’s season win-loss record is not supplied, so the comparison is incomplete. Because ranking is available for both players and favors Joint, while Day’s visible match volume/form tempers but does not overturn that edge, the best evidence-bounded estimate is a modest Maya Joint advantage rather than a heavy favorite. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable in the evidence package.

openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 17, 1:40 AM PDT

What remains uncertain

Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable.
Maya Joint's season win-loss record is missing.
Surface-specific form unavailable
Injuries unavailable
Head-to-head unavailable
Travel unavailable
Market odds unavailable
Season win-loss record incomplete for Maya Joint

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What changed before the lock

Oct 17, 1:40 AM PDT · house adjudication completedFirst recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
6448729b9f60e3daae09f0b342b49fb8ae41de7b5c109b08b88732a29e28e473

Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.

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Available source context

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