Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsNFL · Sep 20, 1:25 PM PDT FORECASTDallas Cowboys RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Washington Commanders vs Dallas Cowboys
60.6%Dallas Cowboys
LOCKED Sep 20, 12:55 PM PDT4/4 independent models select Dallas Cowboys; all four oriented probabilities average 60.63%.
17 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Grok: Dallas home game at AT&T Stadium
- Claude: Market line DAL -3.5 implies ~62-65% home win probability
- Gemini: Dallas Cowboys are favored by 3.5 points.
- GPT: DraftKings lists Dallas as a 3.5-point home favorite
Read all four model reports
Grok · Dallas Cowboys · 58.0%
Both teams are 0-1 entering week 2 with no other comparative performance data supplied. Dallas hosts at AT&T Stadium and is listed as a 3.5-point favorite on the DraftKings market line, providing the only directional signal. This produces a modest edge for the home side but remains close to even given identical records and absence of further evidence.
xai/grok-4.3 · Sep 20, 12:20 PM PDTClaude · Dallas Cowboys · 63.0%
The only differentiating evidence is the DraftKings line of DAL -3.5 at home, with both teams 0-1. A 3.5-point home favorite historically converts to roughly a 62-65% win probability. The high total (51.5) slightly increases variance but does not materially shift the favorite's win odds. No injury or QB information is provided for either side, so I stay near the market-implied baseline rather than adjusting.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Sep 20, 12:20 PM PDTGemini · Dallas Cowboys · 63.5%
The Dallas Cowboys are favored by 3.5 points at home against the Washington Commanders. A -3.5 point spread typically translates to an implied win probability of approximately 63-64%. Both teams are 0-1, but Dallas benefits from home-field advantage at AT&T Stadium.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Sep 20, 12:20 PM PDTGPT · Dallas Cowboys · 58.0%
Dallas is the home team and the only comparative pricing evidence in the package is the DraftKings market line of DAL -3.5. A spread of -3.5 generally indicates the home team is a modest but clear favorite, which supports Dallas as more likely than not to win. Both teams are 0-1, so record does not distinguish them, and there is no weather edge in the package. With no moneyline, quarterback, or substantive injury detail available, the estimate should stay conservative rather than overly precise.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Sep 20, 12:20 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No team statistics, advanced metrics, or prior season results provided
- Injury reports listed as empty and noted as potentially incomplete
- Early-season week 2 game with minimal performance history
- Market line is the sole comparative indicator; no moneyline odds given
- No moneyline prices provided; probability derived from spread conversion only
- Injury lists are empty for both teams, likely incomplete rather than clean
- No quarterback or starter confirmation
- Only one week of 2026 results; records carry minimal signal
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- First recorded forecast
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
cd2449c98cf0ada856fdc21674c697402c3e62b76520e22b3893d1c72e5eeb43 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
f776e6dbe22b893cd95b43df42777f135b5f6eaf565c156b1181389e6235c022
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
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Recorded outcome: Washington Commanders 20, Dallas Cowboys 37
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