College Football · Oct 17, 9:00 AM PDT

SMU Mustangs vs Virginia Cavaliers

77.3%SMU Mustangs

LOCKED Oct 17, 8:32 AM PDT

4/4 independent models select SMU Mustangs; all four oriented probabilities average 77.25%.

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FORECASTSMU Mustangs

Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.

RELIABILITY4/4 model reports

16 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.

MARKET VALUENot established

A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.

Why the models lean this way

These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.

Claude: DraftKings line of SMU -10 implies roughly 78-82% win probability for the favorite
Gemini: SMU is ranked #24
GPT: SMU is 4-1 versus Virginia at 4-2.
Grok: SMU 4-1 record and ranked 24

Read all four model reports

Claude · SMU Mustangs · 79.0%

SMU is a 10-point home favorite per the supplied DraftKings line, which is the strongest single signal available. Historically, a double-digit home favorite in college football wins roughly 78-82% of such games. Supporting facts align: SMU is ranked No. 24 with a 4-1 record, while Virginia is unranked at 4-2, and the game is at SMU's Gerald J. Ford Stadium. I anchor on the market-implied figure and apply no material adjustment since no injury or efficiency data is provided to justify deviation.

anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 17, 7:23 AM PDT

Gemini · SMU Mustangs · 78.0%

SMU is ranked #24 with a 4-1 record and benefits from home-field advantage at Gerald J. Ford Stadium. The market line favors SMU by 10 points, which translates to an approximate 78% implied win probability.

google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 17, 7:23 AM PDT

GPT · SMU Mustangs · 76.0%

SMU has the stronger evidence package on every available comparative signal: better record (4-1 vs 4-2), a national ranking (#24 vs unranked), home field at Gerald J. Ford Stadium, and most importantly a substantial market signal of SMU -10. A double-digit point spread in college football generally indicates a clearly favored team, and that market view is consistent with the other supplied facts. Using only this immutable evidence, SMU should be favored to win comfortably more often than not, though not at near-certainty because no injury, roster, or efficiency data are provided.

openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 17, 7:23 AM PDT

Grok · SMU Mustangs · 76.0%

SMU holds a 4-1 record and #24 ranking versus Virginia's 4-2 mark and unranked status. The DraftKings line lists SMU as a 10-point home favorite at Gerald J. Ford Stadium, supplying the primary comparative signal that SMU is the stronger side on current evidence.

xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 17, 7:23 AM PDT

What remains uncertain

No injury reports, quarterback status, or depth-chart information supplied
No advanced efficiency metrics (SP+, FEI, EPA) or strength-of-schedule context
Record-to-team mapping inferred from side ordering; not explicitly labeled
Single sportsbook line with no line-movement history or closing-line context
No weather or travel detail provided
No advanced efficiency metrics provided
No injury information available
Weather conditions are unknown

What to watch next

Wait for the official result. The locked forecast stays unchanged.

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What changed before the lock

Oct 17, 8:32 AM PDT · final lock6.3 percentage points higher for SMU Mustangs
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
080279279ca85e1664d2cbff23e9dd5bdf44904e11a9f764712e76537851c7a6
Oct 10, 5:23 PM PDT · house adjudication completedFirst recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
70d70a163c4defdf340b698fbe17783888272b7d0cc4ee951d06f530d0349190

Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.

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Available source context

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