Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsTennis · Sep 14, 4:15 PM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTZeynep Sonmez RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Iryna Shymanovich vs Zeynep Sonmez
71.5%Zeynep Sonmez
LOCKED Sep 14, 3:41 PM PDT4/4 independent models select Zeynep Sonmez; all four oriented probabilities average 71.5%.
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18 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Gemini: Zeynep Sonmez is ranked 58th in the world.
- Claude: Sonmez ranked 58 with 1027 points; Shymanovich rank not supplied (null)
- Grok: Zeynep Sonmez explicit rank 58 and 1027 points vs Shymanovich null rank/points
- GPT: Zeynep Sonmez has the only explicit current rank provided: No. 58.
Read all four model reports
Gemini · Zeynep Sonmez · 68.0%
Zeynep Sonmez is the clear favorite based on the available evidence. She holds a solid WTA ranking of 58 and boasts a superior season win-loss record of 28-20. In contrast, Iryna Shymanovich's ranking is unavailable, and her season record is barely above .500 at 21-20. The ranking disparity and better season performance strongly favor Sonmez. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Sep 14, 3:40 PM PDTClaude · Zeynep Sonmez · 72.0%
Sonmez is ranked No. 58 (1027 points, slipped from 53) with a 28-20 season record, while Shymanovich has no supplied ranking at all — typically indicating a player outside the main-tour ranking tier shown by the feed — and a barely-above-even 21-20 record. The ranking gap plus the stronger win rate (58% vs 51%) favors Sonmez clearly, though Shymanovich's presence in a WTA main draw implies she is competent and possibly in form (qualifying/entry). No surface-specific form, injury status, head-to-head history, travel/fatigue data, or market odds are supplied, so the estimate rests solely on rank and season win-loss and is held short of a lopsided figure.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Sep 14, 3:40 PM PDTGrok · Zeynep Sonmez · 76.0%
Zeynep Sonmez holds an explicit WTA rank of 58 with 1027 ranking points and a 28-20 season record, while Iryna Shymanovich has no rank or points listed and a 21-20 record. This establishes a clear gap favoring Sonmez on the supplied facts alone. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable as they are not supplied in the evidence package.
xai/grok-4.3 · Sep 14, 3:40 PM PDTGPT · Zeynep Sonmez · 70.0%
Zeynep Sonmez is the stronger side on the supplied immutable evidence. She has an explicit current WTA rank of 58, while Iryna Shymanovich has no current rank supplied in the package. Sonmez also owns the better season record, 28-20 versus Shymanovich’s 21-20, indicating both more wins and a stronger overall season profile from the facts provided. Based only on current ranking and season singles record, Sonmez should be favored, though not overwhelmingly because the evidence package is narrow. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable here, so the estimate cannot be pushed too aggressively.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Sep 14, 3:40 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable.
- The exact ranking for Iryna Shymanovich is missing, obscuring the true ranking gap.
- Surface-specific form unavailable
- Injury/fitness status unavailable
- Head-to-head record unavailable
- Travel and scheduling/fatigue data unavailable
- Market odds unavailable
- Shymanovich's rank and ranking points are null, so the true gap is inferred, not measured
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- Probability unchanged
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
1b8924db54352fb49fe97cb821195bd95afe0b14d86f69f2ee972f87ff035295 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
3dc249ace493dc10a0188252e4c0bf92503e8edcbae0d56d895112bd0bb4d738
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
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These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Zeynep Sonmez (TUR) bt Iryna Shymanovich (BLR) 6-1 6-1
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