Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsNFL · Oct 11, 1:25 PM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTDetroit Lions RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established Current TORK69.3% Simple average69.3% Calibrated average71.0% Kalshi70.0% Inspect the methods and progress →
Detroit Lions vs Arizona Cardinals
69.3%Detroit Lions
LOCKED Oct 11, 12:56 PM PDT4/4 independent models select Detroit Lions; all four oriented probabilities average 69.25%.
Check the evidence
The most important gap and your next source check.
- Read the model reasons and reported limits.
- Inspect available source context; record missing sources.
- Identify what remains unverified and your next action.
16 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Gemini: Detroit Lions are 5.5-point road favorites
- Claude: DraftKings line DET -5.5 implies roughly 70-73% win probability for Detroit
- Grok: Detroit 2-2 record vs Arizona 1-3
- GPT: Detroit is 2-2; Arizona is 1-3.
Read all four model reports
Gemini · Detroit Lions · 70.0%
The Detroit Lions are 5.5-point road favorites against the Arizona Cardinals. A 5.5-point spread typically translates to an implied win probability of around 70%. Detroit also holds a slightly better record (2-2) than Arizona (1-3).
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 11, 11:31 AM PDTClaude · Detroit Lions · 71.0%
DraftKings lists Detroit as a 5.5-point road favorite, which historically converts to roughly a 70-73% win probability. The market line already embeds team strength, situational and availability information. Supporting evidence aligns directionally: Detroit is 2-2 versus Arizona's 1-3, and a road team being favored by nearly a touchdown signals a meaningful perceived talent gap. Offsetting factors are modest: Arizona has home-field advantage in a domed, controlled environment (weather irrelevant), and a 55.5 total implies a higher-scoring game with somewhat more variance, which slightly compresses favorite win probability. I settle just under the raw spread-implied figure at 71%.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 11, 11:30 AM PDTGrok · Detroit Lions · 68.0%
Detroit enters with a superior 2-2 record versus Arizona's 1-3. The DraftKings market line lists Detroit as a 5.5-point road favorite, implying the Lions are the stronger side even after accounting for venue. No countervailing team-strength or injury data is supplied to overturn this edge. The probability is therefore anchored to the combination of record differential and spread-implied win rate for a 5-6 point favorite.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 11, 11:30 AM PDTGPT · Detroit Lions · 68.0%
Detroit has the stronger evidence package on both available comparatives: record and market expectation. The Lions are 2-2 versus Arizona at 1-3, and the supplied DraftKings line lists Detroit -5.5 on the road, which is a meaningful indication that Detroit is the better team in this matchup even after accounting for Arizona's home field. A road favorite of this size typically implies a clearly better-than-even win chance, but not near certainty. With no usable quarterback, injury, or weather detail beyond empty injury lists and null weather, the best evidence-bounded estimate is that Detroit wins roughly two-thirds of the time.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 11, 11:30 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No moneyline odds provided, requiring probability derivation from the point spread
- No injury reports or player availability details provided
- Lack of specific team statistics or quarterback information
- No injury or quarterback availability information supplied for either team
- No moneyline prices provided, so vig-free implied probability must be inferred from the spread
- Only win-loss records given; no point differential, efficiency, or strength-of-schedule data
- Single sportsbook line with no closing-line movement or consensus context
- Official game-status reports may not yet have published at data capture time
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 8.3 percentage points lower for Detroit Lions
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
4ea427bef2a15b7750aea685aa25f9d383b351db445f7fca97d61a88d3c3a8c6 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
91997f713cb51b5f9b3969c56ca39473a056a9b6357da88090b76e637b17957f
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
All probabilities below refer to Detroit Lions. Model inputs were fixed at Oct 11, 12:56 PM PDT. The market was observed at Oct 11, 12:55 PM PDT.
Comparison record
Saved Oct 11, 1:04 PM PDT. This is a research comparison; no method has been promoted.
5ba147c4e19eb9f2b2bf786b6b220cf0430b16cd7e5663b012d66c0ce418f748Available source context
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Detroit Lions 45, Arizona Cardinals 21
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