Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsCollege Football · Oct 10, 9:00 AM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTOklahoma State Cowboys RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Oklahoma State Cowboys vs UCF Knights
77.3%Oklahoma State Cowboys
LOCKED Oct 10, 8:31 AM PDT4/4 independent models select Oklahoma State Cowboys; all four oriented probabilities average 77.25%.
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17 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
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Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- GPT: Oklahoma State is favored by 10.5 points in the supplied DraftKings market line
- Claude: DraftKings spread OKST -10.5 implies roughly 80% win probability
- Gemini: Oklahoma State's home-field advantage at Boone Pickens Stadium
- Grok: OKST 3-1 record and #18 ranking vs UCF 3-2 unranked
Read all four model reports
GPT · Oklahoma State Cowboys · 77.0%
Oklahoma State has the stronger evidence package on every available comparative signal: a better record (3-1 vs 3-2), a national ranking (No. 18 vs unranked), home field at Boone Pickens Stadium, and a substantial market line of Oklahoma State -10.5. Among the supplied facts, the market spread is the strongest synthesized indicator of expected win likelihood, and a double-digit home favorite in college football generally implies a clear but not overwhelming edge. The ranking and slightly better record support that same direction. With no injury, roster, or efficiency data allowed, the estimate should stay bounded rather than aggressive, but the available evidence supports Oklahoma State as a solid favorite.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 7, 7:53 AM PDTClaude · Oklahoma State Cowboys · 80.0%
Market line (DraftKings OKST -10.5 at home) is the dominant signal. A double-digit home favorite of roughly 10.5 points historically converts to about a 78-82% straight-up win rate. Supporting evidence aligns: Oklahoma State is ranked No. 18 with a 3-1 record and hosts at Boone Pickens Stadium, while UCF is unranked at 3-2. No contradictory facts appear in the package, so I anchor near the line-implied figure without material adjustment.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 7, 7:53 AM PDTGemini · Oklahoma State Cowboys · 80.0%
Oklahoma State is ranked 18th, has a 3-1 record, and is playing at home. The market line favors them by 10.5 points, which translates to an approximate 80% implied win probability.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 7, 7:53 AM PDTGrok · Oklahoma State Cowboys · 72.0%
Oklahoma State enters with a 3-1 record and #18 ranking while hosting UCF (3-2, unranked) at Boone Pickens Stadium. The DraftKings market line lists OKST as a 10.5-point favorite, supplying the primary comparative signal that the home team is expected to win at a rate materially above 50%. Venue and ranking differentials reinforce this edge.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 7, 7:53 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No injury or availability information is included
- No advanced efficiency metrics or strength-of-schedule data is provided
- Records alone do not show opponent quality
- No head-to-head or matchup-specific statistical details are supplied
- Forecast is limited to immutable scoreboard facts current as of 2026-10-07T14:52:58.066Z
- No injury, suspension, or depth-chart information supplied
- No advanced efficiency, SP+/FPI, or strength-of-schedule data
- Strength of each team's record is unknown (opponent quality not given)
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 2.0 percentage points higher for Oklahoma State Cowboys
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
5c8a746e1f2d3c8bbde4cc80489da8a3e2061f141b8a887b2d8976dac82e4dfe - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
3809d320354a4eb63bae521c54944afc09d9fe3ef6a47bc0b1978e6b7ef1f0a3
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
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Recorded outcome: Final
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