Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsNFL · Sep 20, 1:25 PM PDT FORECASTSeattle Seahawks RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Seattle Seahawks vs Arizona Cardinals
61.0%Seattle Seahawks
LOCKED Sep 20, 12:55 PM PDT4/4 independent models select Seattle Seahawks; all four oriented probabilities average 61%.
17 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: DraftKings line SEA -3.5 marks Seattle a road favorite, implying roughly a 63-66% win chance
- Gemini: Market spread favors Seattle by 3.5 points (SEA -3.5).
- Grok: Both teams 1-0 entering Week 2
- GPT: Seattle is favored by 3.5 points in the supplied DraftKings market line.
Read all four model reports
Claude · Seattle Seahawks · 64.0%
The only direct comparative signal is the DraftKings line of SEA -3.5 on the road, which implies the market views Seattle as the clearly stronger side despite the Cardinals hosting at State Farm Stadium. A road favorite of 3.5 points typically converts to roughly a 63-66% win probability, and a low total (40.5) modestly narrows variance but does not change the favorite's edge much. Both teams are 1-0, so records provide no differentiation, and no injury or quarterback status is supplied. I anchor to the market rather than adjusting, since no additional evidence justifies deviating from the priced expectation.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Sep 15, 9:11 PM PDTGemini · Seattle Seahawks · 64.0%
The Seattle Seahawks are favored by 3.5 points on the road against the Arizona Cardinals. In the NFL, a -3.5 point spread typically translates to an implied win probability of approximately 63% to 65%. Despite both teams starting the season 1-0, the betting market clearly favors Seattle.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Sep 15, 9:11 PM PDTGrok · Seattle Seahawks · 57.0%
Both teams enter at 1-0 with no injury data or prior comparative results supplied. The only quantitative signal is the DraftKings market line listing Seattle as a 3.5-point road favorite. In the absence of other differentiating evidence, the spread is treated as the best available proxy for relative team strength, translating to a modest win probability edge for the Seahawks.
xai/grok-4.3 · Sep 15, 9:11 PM PDTGPT · Seattle Seahawks · 59.0%
Seattle is the best evidence-based pick because the only comparative signal beyond identical 1-0 records is the market spread, which lists the Seahawks as 3.5-point road favorites. A road favorite of that size generally implies the away team is more likely than not to win outright, even after accounting for Arizona's home field. With no injury, quarterback, weather, or moneyline detail available in the package, the spread is the strongest usable indicator, so Seattle gets a moderate edge rather than a highly confident projection.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Sep 15, 9:11 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Injury lists are empty for both teams; official game-status reports had not published at data capture
- No quarterback or depth-chart confirmation provided for either side
- No moneyline prices supplied, so implied probability is derived from the spread alone
- Weather data is null for a game at a domed/retractable-roof venue
- Only one line from a single provider (DraftKings); no market consensus or line-movement history
- Single-game 2026 records give no strength-of-opponent or efficiency context
- Direct moneyline odds are not provided, requiring the win probability to be estimated from the point spread.
- No injury reports or player availability details are included in the evidence package.
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- First recorded forecast
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
23f56eed40df8672c338f02fcdefe092acf9546231385644f575b7ef91743ef2 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
8695ab1aa8702c0321926930768db133e6d39c7b75098f495dcde51b4bb872ed
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
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Recorded outcome: Seattle Seahawks 31, Arizona Cardinals 7
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