Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsTennis · Oct 17, 11:00 PM PDT FORECASTAdam Walton RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Adam Walton
55.5%Adam Walton
NOT LOCKED4/4 independent models select Adam Walton; all four oriented probabilities average 55.5%.
22 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Gemini: Walton's higher ranking (98 vs 124)
- Claude: Walton ranked 98 vs Basilashvili 124 (630 vs 491 ranking points)
- GPT: Walton holds the higher current ATP rank: 98 vs 124.
- Grok: Current rank: Walton 98, Basilashvili 124
Read all four model reports
Gemini · Adam Walton · 52.0%
Adam Walton holds a higher ATP ranking (98 vs 124) and more ranking points (630 vs 491) than Nikoloz Basilashvili. However, Basilashvili has a better season win percentage (43.8% vs 33.3%), making this a closely contested matchup. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 17, 3:30 AM PDTClaude · Adam Walton · 54.0%
Only current rankings and season win-loss records are supplied. Walton is ranked 98 (630 pts) versus Basilashvili at 124 (491 pts), a modest ~26-place edge that typically converts to a small favorite status. That edge is partly offset by win-rate: Basilashvili is 7-9 (.438) while Walton is 9-18 (.333), though Walton's larger sample suggests more main-draw exposure against stronger fields. Both are in a qualifying final with no titles this season and near-identical recent ranking trajectories (121->124 and 97->98). Surface-specific form, injuries, head-to-head history, travel/fatigue, and market odds are not available in the evidence package, so this estimate stays close to a coin flip with a slight lean to the higher-ranked player.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 17, 3:30 AM PDTGPT · Adam Walton · 58.0%
Using only the supplied evidence, Adam Walton has the stronger baseline profile: a better current ATP rank (98 vs 124), more ranking points (630 vs 491), and a slightly better previous rank trend (97 to 98 vs 121 to 124, though both have slipped). Season win-loss records are mixed: Walton is 9-18 and Basilashvili is 7-9, so Basilashvili has the better win percentage, but Walton has played a larger sample against what may be stronger ATP-level opposition implied by his higher ranking. With only ranking and season record available, the ranking edge is the clearest signal, but Basilashvili’s less negative record keeps this from being a wide gap. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable and could materially change the outlook.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 17, 3:30 AM PDTGrok · Adam Walton · 58.0%
Adam Walton holds the superior current rank (98 vs 124) and ranking points (630 vs 491). Basilashvili shows a better season win rate (7-9) than Walton (9-18), yet the ranking differential favors Walton. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable per evidence_scope. Estimate remains evidence-bounded and low-confidence given the narrow data.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 17, 3:30 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Surface form is unavailable
- Injuries are unavailable
- Head-to-head is unavailable
- Travel is unavailable
- Market odds are unavailable
- No surface-specific (indoor hard) form supplied
- No injury or fitness information
- No head-to-head record available
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Record hash
db07dcf06e581b41f79f4da52e61f4517d1617e2bb696dcdaadbb71018f93172
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
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