Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsCollege Football · Oct 10, 4:00 PM PDT FORECASTLSU Tigers RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Kentucky Wildcats vs LSU Tigers
75.6%LSU Tigers
LOCKED Oct 10, 3:31 PM PDT4/4 independent models select LSU Tigers; all four oriented probabilities average 75.63%.
17 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: DraftKings LSU -9.5 implies ~78-81% favorite win probability
- Gemini: LSU is ranked #10 in the nation
- Grok: LSU ranked 10, Kentucky unranked
- GPT: DraftKings lists LSU as a 9.5-point favorite, the strongest comparative signal in the evidence package.
Read all four model reports
Claude · LSU Tigers · 78.0%
DraftKings lists LSU -9.5 at Kroger Field, a road favorite line that already embeds market assessment of team strength, venue, and known availability. Historical conversion of a 9.5-point college football spread maps to roughly a 77-81% win probability for the favorite. Supporting signals align: LSU is ranked No. 10 nationally while Kentucky is unranked despite an identical 4-1 record, implying LSU's wins carry more quality. The home-field edge for Kentucky is already priced into the line (a neutral-site line would be larger). I settle near 78%, slightly below the midpoint of the raw spread conversion to respect SEC home-underdog variance and unknown injury information.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 10, 9:08 AM PDTGemini · LSU Tigers · 77.5%
LSU is ranked #10 and favored by 9.5 points on the road against an unranked Kentucky team. Despite both teams holding a 4-1 record and Kentucky having home-field advantage at Kroger Field, the betting market strongly indicates LSU as the superior team, translating to a win probability of roughly 75-80%.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 10, 9:08 AM PDTGrok · LSU Tigers · 71.0%
LSU enters ranked No. 10 while Kentucky is unranked; both teams share identical 4-1 records. The DraftKings market line lists LSU as a 9.5-point road favorite at Kroger Field, supplying the primary comparative signal that LSU is the stronger side. Venue is Kentucky's home stadium, which narrows the margin relative to a neutral-site game but does not overcome the ranking and line differential.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 10, 9:08 AM PDTGPT · LSU Tigers · 76.0%
Using only the supplied evidence, LSU should be favored to win. The strongest signal is the market line of LSU -9.5, which typically implies a clear but not overwhelming win probability for LSU even on the road. LSU also carries the only supplied ranking (#10), while both teams have the same 4-1 record, which prevents record-based separation. Kentucky has home field at Kroger Field, which narrows the gap somewhat, but the market still makes LSU a substantial road favorite. Balancing the strong market signal against Kentucky's home venue and the limited evidence set, LSU is the more likely winner at an estimated 76%.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 10, 9:08 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No injury reports, quarterback status, or depth-chart information supplied
- No advanced efficiency metrics (SP+, FEI, EPA) or strength-of-schedule data
- Only one sportsbook line provided; no line movement or opening number
- Weather and travel conditions unknown
- No head-to-head or recent-form detail beyond aggregate records
- Missing injury reports
- Lack of advanced team efficiency metrics
- No weather or depth chart information available
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- Probability unchanged
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
f49a62efe55ca7f11ca222878f70ed8003877fbd46af04578506bc55c62a4b76 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
9c9e6fa0e24a4fffcf44912bf5948c4af6bdf873c9addfb39ebcecd757c024ae
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
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Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
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Recorded outcome: Final/OT
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