Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsTennis · Oct 16, 11:20 PM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTAnna Bondar RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established Current TORK58.5% Simple average58.5% Calibrated average59.3% Kalshi41.0% Inspect the methods and progress →
Anna Bondar vs Aliaksandra Sasnovich
58.5%Anna Bondar
LOCKED Oct 16, 10:30 PM PDT4/4 independent models select Anna Bondar; all four oriented probabilities average 58.5%.
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- Check the recorded official result and source context.
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22 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Grok: Current rank: Bondar 66, Sasnovich 118
- Claude: Ranking gap: Bondar No. 66 vs Sasnovich No. 118
- Gemini: Anna Bondar's higher rank (66 vs 118)
- GPT: Current ranking favors Anna Bondar substantially: 66 vs 118.
Read all four model reports
Grok · Anna Bondar · 58.0%
Anna Bondar holds the superior current rank (66 vs 118) and ranking points (974 vs 626). Season singles records are close (29-26 vs 31-24). Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable per evidence_scope.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 16, 5:03 PM PDTClaude · Anna Bondar · 59.0%
Bondar holds the clear ranking edge (No. 66, 974 points vs No. 118, 626 points), a gap of roughly 52 places that historically translates to about a 58-62% win probability in a neutral WTA matchup. That edge is partially offset by Sasnovich's marginally better season record (31-24, .564 vs 29-26, .527) and her slightly improving ranking trend (121 to 118) versus Bondar's small slip (64 to 66). Neither player has a title this season, and both are in qualifying, implying comparable current standing in practice. Surface-specific form, injury status, head-to-head history, travel/fatigue, and market odds are not supplied in the evidence package, so this estimate rests solely on ranking and aggregate season record, which justifies a modest lean rather than a strong one.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 16, 5:02 PM PDTGemini · Anna Bondar · 60.0%
Anna Bondar holds a significant ranking advantage over Aliaksandra Sasnovich (66 vs 118) and has accumulated more ranking points (974 vs 626). While Sasnovich has a slightly better win-loss record for the season, Bondar's higher rank indicates success in higher-tier events or against tougher opponents.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 16, 5:02 PM PDTGPT · Anna Bondar · 57.0%
Anna Bondar is the evidence-bounded favorite based on the stronger current ranking: No. 66 versus No. 118 for Aliaksandra Sasnovich. That ranking gap is meaningful and is the clearest signal in the supplied package. Season records are close, with Bondar at 29-26 and Sasnovich at 31-24, which slightly supports Sasnovich on 2026 win-loss performance and tempers Bondar’s edge. Both players have small positive ranking movement versus previous rank (Bondar 64 to 66 is a slight drop; Sasnovich 121 to 118 is a slight rise), but that is weaker evidence than the current rank itself. Balancing Bondar’s notably better rank against Sasnovich’s slightly better season record yields a modest, not overwhelming, lean to Bondar. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable in the evidence package.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 16, 5:02 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Surface-specific form unavailable
- Injuries unavailable
- Head-to-head unavailable
- Travel unavailable
- Market odds unavailable
- No surface-specific (hard court) form supplied
- No head-to-head record provided
- No injury or fitness information available
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 0.8 percentage points lower for Anna Bondar
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
e0181fe23c00c377da5fb25e59e91e67f51c00368951980924e42483f591fa10 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
58d6141b919157cb6cce542570ba2304c3c99b3ba3a4a67dda9dc13f316a3e06
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
All probabilities below refer to Anna Bondar. Model inputs were fixed at Oct 16, 10:30 PM PDT. The market was observed at Oct 16, 10:25 PM PDT.
Comparison record
Saved Oct 16, 10:30 PM PDT. This is a research comparison; no method has been promoted.
da3a603593b2f0815d2d78cae0bb0420eb7308b82a5bbf02ed926b6b6decc668Available source context
site.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Aliaksandra Sasnovich (BLR) bt Anna Bondar (HUN) 7-5 6-1
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