Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsNFL · Oct 4, 10:00 AM PDT FORECASTArizona Cardinals RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established Current TORK57.3% Simple average57.3% Calibrated average57.9% Kalshi56.0% Inspect the methods and progress →
Arizona Cardinals vs New York Giants
57.3%Arizona Cardinals
LOCKED Oct 4, 9:30 AM PDT4/4 independent models select Arizona Cardinals; all four oriented probabilities average 57.25%.
18 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: DraftKings line ARI -2.5 despite Arizona being the road team, implying ~57-60% market win probability
- Grok: Market line shows ARI -2.5 on the road
- Gemini: Arizona is favored by 2.5 points on the road.
- GPT: DraftKings lists Arizona as a 2.5-point road favorite
Read all four model reports
Claude · Arizona Cardinals · 58.0%
The only direct market signal is DraftKings ARI -2.5 as the road team, which implies roughly 57-60% win probability for Arizona after typical spread-to-moneyline conversion (a 2.5-point favorite is usually priced near -140/+120). The records (ARI 1-2, NYG 2-1) slightly favor the Giants, but a three-game sample is weak evidence relative to a market line that already incorporates records, personnel, and home field. Giants' home-field edge is also embedded in the posted number, meaning the market views Arizona as the meaningfully stronger team on neutral ground. With no injury or QB detail to adjust either way, I anchor close to the market-implied figure with a modest shading toward the home team given roster uncertainty.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 4, 8:55 AM PDTGrok · Arizona Cardinals · 56.0%
The DraftKings market line lists Arizona as a 2.5-point road favorite despite the Giants' better 2-1 record versus Arizona's 1-2. In the absence of any other comparative team metrics, the spread is the strongest available signal that Arizona is the slight favorite.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 4, 8:55 AM PDTGemini · Arizona Cardinals · 58.0%
The Arizona Cardinals are 2.5-point road favorites against the New York Giants. Despite the Cardinals' 1-2 record compared to the Giants' 2-1 record, the betting market favors Arizona, implying a win probability of roughly 58%.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 4, 8:55 AM PDTGPT · Arizona Cardinals · 57.0%
The strongest comparative evidence in the package is the market spread: Arizona is favored by 2.5 points on the road at New York. A road favorite of this size generally implies Arizona is more likely than not to win outright, and it outweighs the modest record edge held by the Giants (2-1 vs. 1-2). Home field works in New York's favor, but the market still prices Arizona as the better side on this matchup at this point in time. With no usable quarterback, weather, or substantive injury detail, the estimate should stay fairly close to the market-implied edge rather than becoming aggressive.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 4, 8:55 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Injury lists are empty for both teams, likely incomplete rather than genuinely clean
- No starting quarterback confirmation for either side
- No moneyline odds provided; probability inferred from spread only
- Weather data is null for an outdoor early-October game in New Jersey
- No strength-of-schedule, point differential, or opponent-quality context for the 1-2 and 2-1 records
- Single sportsbook quote with no line-movement history
- Only season records and one market line available
- No team strength ratings, recent form, or matchup details
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- First recorded forecast
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
03129c02119eaf9ffa62a5334b5e3799a10c0c5c8e1fe74ba5c2f26ff553e4d7 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
ea821e958a9fe72291423eb2ec094becf42ac5f350c11bf08f3bba7ffd3c534c
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
All probabilities below refer to Arizona Cardinals. Model inputs were fixed at Oct 4, 9:30 AM PDT. The market was observed at Oct 4, 9:25 AM PDT.
Comparison record
Saved Oct 4, 9:34 AM PDT. This is a research comparison; no method has been promoted.
abb30126b6237ad9007b122890284a31634eae01f06f0b2025d819c332c08138Available source context
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Arizona Cardinals 24, New York Giants 36
Finish your review
Record whether this brief helped, how long the review took, and your next action.
Use this brief for a review →