Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsCollege Football · Oct 10, 12:30 PM PDT FORECASTWestern Michigan Broncos RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Western Michigan Broncos vs Kent State Golden Flashes
82.8%Western Michigan Broncos
LOCKED Oct 10, 12:01 PM PDT4/4 independent models select Western Michigan Broncos; all four oriented probabilities average 82.75%.
15 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Gemini: Western Michigan is favored by 14 points
- Grok: WMU 3-2 record vs KSU 2-3 record
- Claude: Market line WMU -14 implies ~85-88% moneyline win probability
- GPT: DraftKings market line lists Western Michigan -14
Read all four model reports
Gemini · Western Michigan Broncos · 86.0%
Western Michigan is a 14-point home favorite against Kent State. Historically, a 14-point spread in college football translates to an implied win probability of approximately 85-87%. The Broncos also hold a slightly better record and benefit from home-field advantage at Waldo Stadium.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 10, 9:08 AM PDTGrok · Western Michigan Broncos · 78.0%
Western Michigan enters with a 3-2 record versus Kent State's 2-3. The game is at Waldo Stadium and DraftKings lists WMU as a 14-point home favorite. These structured facts indicate a substantial talent and situational edge for the Broncos despite the absence of efficiency metrics or injury data.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 10, 9:08 AM PDTClaude · Western Michigan Broncos · 86.0%
DraftKings lists Western Michigan at -14 at home (Waldo Stadium), a double-digit favorite margin that historically converts to roughly an 85-88% straight-up win rate in college football. The record comparison (3-2 vs 2-3) is directionally consistent with the line, and home-field advantage is already embedded in the number. With a modest total (43.5), fewer possessions slightly raise variance, but not enough to materially shift from the market-implied estimate.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 10, 9:08 AM PDTGPT · Western Michigan Broncos · 81.0%
Western Michigan is the stronger side in the supplied evidence package. The Broncos have the better record (3-2 vs 2-3), are playing at home at Waldo Stadium, and the market line lists Western Michigan as a 14-point favorite. In college football, a two-touchdown home favorite generally implies a strong win expectation. With no rankings provided and no injury or efficiency data available, the market line is the clearest comparative signal, supported by the modest record edge and home field.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 10, 9:08 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No advanced statistical metrics available
- Missing injury reports and depth chart updates
- Weather conditions at Waldo Stadium are unknown
- No team efficiency or advanced stats supplied
- Injury and depth-chart information unavailable
- Rankings both null; no historical matchup data
- No injury or depth-chart information supplied
- No advanced efficiency, SOS, or point-differential data
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- Probability unchanged
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
781e10e2cc6ec6de2bfd1b4b8a4855217875e2268ee917532f5dc55cdbbaf1fd - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
86226752715066bc6db5f6bfb5c1607ad9262e7905f5390286feab7db4321c32
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
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Recorded outcome: Final
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