Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsCollege Football · Oct 10, 12:45 PM PDT FORECASTTemple Owls RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Temple Owls vs UConn Huskies
59.9%Temple Owls
LOCKED Oct 10, 12:16 PM PDT4/4 independent models select Temple Owls; all four oriented probabilities average 59.88%.
17 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: Market line TEM -3.5 implies ~62-64% moneyline-equivalent win probability
- Gemini: Temple is favored by 3.5 points
- Grok: Identical 2-3 records for both sides
- GPT: DraftKings market line lists Temple -3.5, indicating Temple as the likely winner
Read all four model reports
Claude · Temple Owls · 63.0%
The only comparative signal is the DraftKings line of TEM -3.5 at Lincoln Financial Field, Temple's home stadium, with both teams at 2-3 and unranked. A home favorite of 3.5 points historically converts to roughly a 61-65% win probability; the key-number cushion above 3 slightly raises it versus a flat -3. With identical records and no ranking differential, I defer almost entirely to the market line and set Temple at ~63%.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 10, 9:08 AM PDTGemini · Temple Owls · 62.5%
Temple is favored by 3.5 points at home against UConn. Both teams have identical 2-3 records, but the market line and home-field advantage suggest Temple has a moderate edge.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 10, 9:08 AM PDTGrok · Temple Owls · 56.0%
Both teams enter with identical 2-3 records and no rankings supplied. The only comparative signal is the DraftKings market line listing Temple as a 3.5-point favorite at Lincoln Financial Field. This implies a modest home-edge advantage for Temple sufficient to select them as the more probable winner while remaining close to 50 percent given the thin evidence base.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 10, 9:08 AM PDTGPT · Temple Owls · 58.0%
Temple is the slight favorite on the supplied market line (Temple -3.5) and is listed at the game venue, while both teams have identical 2-3 records and neither is ranked. With records and rankings providing no edge, the main comparative signal is the market spread, which implies Temple is more likely than UConn to win, but only by a modest amount. A -3.5 line supports Temple as a clear but not dominant favorite, so an evidence-bounded estimate is Temple 58% to win.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 10, 9:08 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No injury or depth-chart information supplied
- No advanced efficiency, SP+, or FPI metrics provided
- No strength-of-schedule context behind the matching 2-3 records
- Single-provider line with no price/juice or line-movement history
- Data current as of ~1.5 hours pre-kickoff; late scratches unknown
- No advanced efficiency metrics
- No injury reports
- No weather or recent form details
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- Probability unchanged
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
65569b45a2be16ff4bed0d99eedb7a198d9b9333d1298eccd6d673548a498008 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
ed96ced4b5bb3c073796a943b7f0038de7619d33c47f4647fdb3a1a6a924b410
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
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Recorded outcome: Final
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