Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsNFL · Oct 4, 1:25 PM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTSeattle Seahawks RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established Current TORK73.0% Simple average73.0% Calibrated average75.1% Kalshi76.0% Inspect the methods and progress →
Los Angeles Chargers vs Seattle Seahawks
73.0%Seattle Seahawks
LOCKED Oct 4, 12:55 PM PDT4/4 independent models select Seattle Seahawks; all four oriented probabilities average 73%.
Check the evidence
The most important gap and your next source check.
- Read the model reasons and reported limits.
- Inspect available source context; record missing sources.
- Identify what remains unverified and your next action.
17 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Gemini: Seattle is a 7-point home favorite
- Grok: Seattle 2-1 record versus Los Angeles 0-3 record
- Claude: DraftKings line SEA -7 at home implies ~73-75% home win probability
- GPT: Seattle is at home in Lumen Field.
Read all four model reports
Gemini · Seattle Seahawks · 76.0%
The Seattle Seahawks are 7-point home favorites against the winless Los Angeles Chargers. A 7-point spread in the NFL typically correlates to a moneyline around -300 to -350, implying a win probability of approximately 75-77% for the home favorite.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Sep 29, 8:31 AM PDTGrok · Seattle Seahawks · 67.0%
Seattle enters at 2-1 while Los Angeles is 0-3. The game is at Lumen Field where Seattle is a 7-point home favorite per the DraftKings line. These factors together indicate Seattle is the stronger side on the date of the evidence. No injury or quarterback data is supplied, which caps precision but does not reverse the directional edge.
xai/grok-4.3 · Sep 29, 8:31 AM PDTClaude · Seattle Seahawks · 74.0%
Market line SEA -7 at home implies roughly a 72-76% win probability for the favorite (a 7-point home favorite historically wins about three-quarters of the time). Records align with the line: Seattle 2-1 at Lumen Field, a strong home environment, versus a winless 0-3 Chargers team traveling west-to-northwest for an early-afternoon-slot kickoff. No injury or QB information is supplied to adjust off the market, so I anchor essentially on the closing-style number, nudging very slightly for the record disparity and home-field noise factor.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Sep 29, 8:31 AM PDTGPT · Seattle Seahawks · 75.0%
Seattle is the stronger evidence-backed side based on both supplied comparatives: a 2-1 record versus the Chargers' 0-3 record, and a substantial home market line of Seahawks -7. The game is also in Seattle at Lumen Field, which adds home-field advantage already partly reflected in the line. With no usable injury detail beyond empty lists and no quarterback information, the estimate should not be pushed too high, but the evidence package clearly supports Seattle as the more likely winner.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Sep 29, 8:31 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Moneylines are not provided, requiring an estimation from the point spread
- Injury reports are currently empty, which could obscure key player absences
- Injury and roster details absent from package
- Quarterback status not reported
- Market line lacks moneyline odds
- Evidence current only through 2026-09-29
- No injury designations listed for either team (empty arrays, not confirmed clean)
- No quarterback status or depth-chart information
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- Probability unchanged
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
0f39b98bbefcd1b86999485a390b180470c488cc2d4d050c6fbdc1056a24771c - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
f6f1f651c0820bcb7f7b1de715448cec74eee11c7d5ccc1ff8f156302979d789
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
All probabilities below refer to Seattle Seahawks. Model inputs were fixed at Oct 4, 12:55 PM PDT. The market was observed at Oct 4, 12:50 PM PDT.
Comparison record
Saved Oct 4, 12:59 PM PDT. This is a research comparison; no method has been promoted.
ad1594393bea83c42a7c35df9ad27be4789f107fe9cb47073f8712da4d8051f4Available source context
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Los Angeles Chargers 23, Seattle Seahawks 30
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