Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsTennis · Oct 13, 1:15 AM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTElise Mertens RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Elise Mertens vs Daria Snigur
64.5%Elise Mertens
LOCKED Oct 13, 12:00 AM PDT4/4 independent models select Elise Mertens; all four oriented probabilities average 64.5%.
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23 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
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Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: Ranking edge: Mertens No. 14 vs Snigur No. 42
- Gemini: Mertens' rank of 14 compared to Snigur's 42
- Grok: Mertens current rank 14 and 2540 points vs Snigur rank 42 and 1254 points
- GPT: Elise Mertens is ranked No. 14 compared with Daria Snigur at No. 42.
Read all four model reports
Claude · Elise Mertens · 60.0%
Mertens is the materially higher-ranked player (No. 14, 2540 points vs No. 42, 1254 points), and ranking differential is the most reliable supplied signal; a roughly 28-place gap typically implies about a 60-65% win probability on tour. That edge is partly offset by Snigur's superior raw season winning percentage (44-16, .733 vs 33-20, .623), though such records for a lower-ranked player often accrue at smaller-draw or qualifying-level events against weaker fields, while Mertens' losses come in deeper main draws. Both players have improved their rankings recently (19 to 14 and 46 to 42), so neither shows a declining trend. Surface-specific form, injury status, head-to-head history, travel/fatigue, and market odds are explicitly unavailable, so this estimate stays close to the rank-based baseline rather than shading further.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 12, 11:15 PM PDTGemini · Elise Mertens · 72.0%
Elise Mertens holds a significant ranking advantage over Daria Snigur (14 vs 42) and has more than double the ranking points (2540 vs 1254). While Snigur has an impressive 44-16 season record, Mertens' higher ranking indicates she consistently competes against and defeats higher-tier opponents on the main tour.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 12, 11:15 PM PDTGrok · Elise Mertens · 65.0%
Mertens holds the superior current rank (14 vs 42) and ranking points (2540 vs 1254), outweighing Snigur's higher win total and win rate (44-16 vs 33-20). This produces a moderate edge for Mertens in a best-evidence estimate. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable per evidence_scope.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 12, 11:15 PM PDTGPT · Elise Mertens · 61.0%
Using only the supplied evidence, Elise Mertens has the stronger ranking profile, sitting No. 14 versus Daria Snigur at No. 42, with roughly double the ranking points (2540 vs 1254). That ranking gap is meaningful and is the strongest indicator in the package. Snigur does have the better season win-loss record at 44-16 versus Mertens at 33-20, which narrows the gap and prevents a stronger forecast toward Mertens. Balancing Mertens' clearly superior rank against Snigur's superior season record leads to a modest, not overwhelming, edge for Mertens. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable in the evidence package, so this estimate remains bounded to rank and season record only.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 12, 11:15 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No surface-specific (hard court) form supplied
- No injury or fitness information
- No head-to-head record
- No travel, rest, or scheduling data
- No market odds or implied probabilities
- Win-loss records lack opponent quality or event-level context
- Surface form is unavailable
- Injuries are unavailable
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 2.0 percentage points lower for Elise Mertens
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
6c979eb51dec3a512ab6efe446fdf6b0a28a6a8ff8f922cf07d11aaf08e2d80e - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
02ae3863b3177d0501f01bfeb48a5f3c645f10019e5947a3ec5dc1a6be6109eb
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
site.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗site.api.espn.com ↗
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Daria Snigur (UKR) bt (14) Elise Mertens (BEL) 6-4 7-5
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