Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsTennis · Oct 15, 11:40 PM PDT FORECASTRafael Jodar RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Casper Ruud vs Rafael Jodar
56.3%Rafael Jodar
LOCKED Oct 15, 11:02 PM PDT4/4 independent models select Rafael Jodar; all four oriented probabilities average 56.25%.
20 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Grok: Jodar current rank 12
- Claude: Jodar ranked No. 12 vs Ruud No. 20 — modest ranking edge to Jodar
- GPT: Rafael Jodar has the better current ranking (12 vs 20).
- Gemini: Rafael Jodar is ranked No. 12.
Read all four model reports
Grok · Rafael Jodar · 57.0%
Jodar holds the superior current rank (12 versus Ruud's 20). This is the sole quantitative fact supplied. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable and therefore excluded from the estimate. The modest rank gap supports only a slight edge for the higher-ranked player.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 15, 11:01 PM PDTClaude · Rafael Jodar · 56.0%
The evidence package supplies only current ATP ranks: Rafael Jodar at No. 12 and Casper Ruud at No. 20. An eight-place gap near the top-20 band is a modest edge, historically translating to roughly a 54-58% win probability for the higher-ranked player in a best-of-three ATP Masters quarterfinal. No season win-loss records, ranking points, titles, surface-specific form, injury status, head-to-head history, travel/fatigue information, or market odds are provided, so no adjustment away from the rank-implied baseline is justified. I therefore set a modest lean toward Jodar with low confidence.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 15, 11:01 PM PDTGPT · Rafael Jodar · 56.0%
Using only the supplied immutable evidence, the main differentiator is current ranking: Rafael Jodar is ranked No. 12 and Casper Ruud is ranked No. 20. No season win-loss records are actually provided in the evidence payload, so the estimate must rely primarily on ranking. That gives Jodar a modest edge, but not a large one, because rankings alone are an incomplete basis for a single-match forecast between two high-level ATP players in a quarterfinal. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable, and those missing factors materially limit certainty.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 15, 11:01 PM PDTGemini · Rafael Jodar · 56.0%
Rafael Jodar holds a higher ATP ranking at No. 12 compared to Casper Ruud at No. 20. With no season win-loss records or other contextual data available, the higher-ranked player is given a slight edge in this matchup.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 15, 11:01 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No season win-loss records supplied
- Surface form unavailable
- Injuries unavailable
- Head-to-head unavailable
- Travel and schedule unavailable
- Market odds unavailable
- Surface-specific (hard court) form not supplied
- Injury and fitness status not supplied
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 3.8 percentage points lower for Rafael Jodar
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
0cf95348c46ab23d8ffe285d96b423c8ad21fdd11ad80f9297b2362fabd340fd - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
f1027d8fdb2b435e8c97dbe888c740b679651fea4d3afdcd3b2fc541364fdad0
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
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These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: (12) Rafael Jodar (ESP) bt (20) Casper Ruud (NOR) 4-6 6-4 6-3
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