Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsCollege Football · Oct 9, 6:00 PM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTUtah State Aggies RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Utah State Aggies vs Washington State Cougars
60.8%Utah State Aggies
LOCKED Oct 9, 5:31 PM PDT4/4 independent models select Utah State Aggies; all four oriented probabilities average 60.75%.
Check the evidence
The most important gap and your next source check.
- Read the model reasons and reported limits.
- Inspect available source context; record missing sources.
- Identify what remains unverified and your next action.
17 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Gemini: Utah State is a 4-point home favorite.
- Claude: DraftKings line USU -4 implies roughly 62-65% win probability for Utah State
- Grok: Identical 1-4 records for both teams
- GPT: DraftKings market line lists Utah State -4, the clearest comparative strength signal in the package.
Read all four model reports
Gemini · Utah State Aggies · 64.0%
Utah State is favored by 4 points at home against Washington State. Both teams enter the game with identical 1-4 records, suggesting comparable early-season struggles. The market line of -4 translates to an implied win probability of roughly 63-65% for the Aggies. The relatively low total of 43.5 points indicates a potentially lower-scoring affair, which can slightly increase variance, but Utah State's home-field advantage at Maverik Stadium supports their status as the favorite.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 9, 11:39 AM PDTClaude · Utah State Aggies · 63.0%
Both teams enter at 1-4 with no rankings, so the only meaningful comparative signal is the DraftKings line of Utah State -4 at home in Maverik Stadium. A 4-point favorite in college football historically wins roughly 62-66% of the time, and that spread already embeds home-field advantage and any public injury/roster information available to the market. With identical records offering no independent tiebreaker, I anchor directly to the market-implied figure rather than adjusting it.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 9, 11:38 AM PDTGrok · Utah State Aggies · 56.0%
Both teams enter with identical 1-4 records and no rankings. The only comparative signal is the DraftKings market line listing Utah State as a 4-point home favorite at Maverik Stadium. A small home spread implies a modest edge for the Aggies despite matching records.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 9, 11:38 AM PDTGPT · Utah State Aggies · 60.0%
Using only the supplied evidence, the strongest comparative signal is the market line: Utah State is favored by 4 points at home (Maverik Stadium). The teams have identical 1-4 records and no rankings, so record and ranking data do not separate them. In college football, a modest home favorite is more likely than not to win, but not overwhelmingly so. A reasonable evidence-bounded estimate is that Utah State wins about 60% of the time, leaving Washington State around 40%.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 9, 11:38 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Missing advanced team efficiency metrics.
- No injury reports or depth chart updates.
- Weather conditions are not provided.
- Lack of specific offensive and defensive matchup data.
- No injury, suspension, or depth-chart information supplied
- No advanced efficiency, SP+/FPI, or strength-of-schedule data
- Records given without opponent quality or margin-of-victory context
- Single sportsbook line; no line movement or market consensus provided
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- First recorded forecast
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
f7dfe42def4312bb16ca81df5c70b03672b5b781dbce93144f73a29c8fea28d9 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
df45ce4438ea3347e051d599314dda3e4df894c531d309e5f17122898e798a70
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Final
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