Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsTennis · Oct 14, 3:10 AM PDT FORECASTDaniil Medvedev RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established Current TORK74.0% Simple average74.0% Calibrated average76.2% Kalshi68.0% Inspect the methods and progress →
Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Daniil Medvedev
74.0%Daniil Medvedev
LOCKED Oct 14, 2:30 AM PDT4/4 independent models select Daniil Medvedev; all four oriented probabilities average 74%.
20 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Grok: Medvedev current rank 6 vs Tsitsipas rank 43
- Gemini: Medvedev's superior ATP ranking (6 vs 43)
- Claude: Ranking gap: No. 6 vs No. 43 (3,860 vs 1,230 points)
- GPT: Current rank advantage: Medvedev No. 6 vs Tsitsipas No. 43
Read all four model reports
Grok · Daniil Medvedev · 72.0%
Medvedev holds rank 6 with 3860 points and a 41-17 record versus Tsitsipas at rank 43 with 1230 points and 31-21 record. The ranking and season win-loss gap supports a moderate-to-strong edge for Medvedev. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable per evidence scope.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 13, 5:02 PM PDTGemini · Daniil Medvedev · 78.0%
Daniil Medvedev is ranked significantly higher at 6 compared to Stefanos Tsitsipas at 43, with more than triple the ranking points (3860 vs 1230). Medvedev also boasts a superior season win-loss record of 41-17 and 3 titles, compared to Tsitsipas's 31-21 record and 1 title. These factors strongly indicate Medvedev as the favorite, though the absence of surface-specific form, head-to-head records, injuries, travel, and market odds limits the confidence of the forecast.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 13, 5:02 PM PDTClaude · Daniil Medvedev · 74.0%
Medvedev holds a decisive ranking edge (No. 6, 3,860 points vs No. 43, 1,230 points) and a stronger 2026 season record (41-17, 3 titles vs 31-21, 1 title), with both rankings stable week-over-week. A gap of roughly 37 ranking places and more than 3x ranking points typically translates to a clear favorite in a Masters 1000 fourth round, though best-of-three tennis retains substantial upset variance and Tsitsipas remains a proven top-tier competitor. Surface-specific form, injury status, head-to-head history, travel/scheduling load, and market odds are explicitly unavailable in this evidence package, so the estimate rests only on ranking and season win-loss data and is therefore shaded toward the center.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 13, 5:02 PM PDTGPT · Daniil Medvedev · 72.0%
Using only the supplied immutable evidence, Daniil Medvedev is the stronger side. He holds a much better current ATP rank (No. 6 vs No. 43), more ranking points (3860 vs 1230), and the stronger 2026 singles record (41-17 vs 31-21), along with more titles this season (3 vs 1). Those indicators collectively point to Medvedev as the more likely winner. Because the evidence package explicitly limits inputs to current ranking and season record, this estimate cannot account for surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, or market information; those are unavailable here. Given the sizable ranking and season-performance gap, Medvedev deserves clear favoritism, but not near-certainty because tennis match outcomes remain variable and key contextual factors are missing.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 13, 5:02 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Surface form unavailable
- Injuries unavailable
- Head-to-head unavailable
- Travel unavailable
- Market odds unavailable
- Surface-specific form is unavailable
- Head-to-head records are unavailable
- Injury reports are unavailable
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 1.0 percentage points higher for Daniil Medvedev
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
2cc7f735de8517266c795c34af7acf9f64561b16cdc99fcb3e5e7ca866123a74 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
ba00d958ed6055b15c0d88d8e8c7404315747ea9344ae92f48980d9c3bcdf27b
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
All probabilities below refer to Daniil Medvedev. Model inputs were fixed at Oct 14, 2:30 AM PDT. The market was observed at Oct 14, 2:25 AM PDT.
Comparison record
Saved Oct 14, 2:34 AM PDT. This is a research comparison; no method has been promoted.
4d2e66076e03ee131f7f57b54cdfac53954f19f769f46b5540343d1a5568265aAvailable source context
site.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗site.api.espn.com ↗
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: (5) Daniil Medvedev (RUS) bt Stefanos Tsitsipas (GRE) 6-4 7-5
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