Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsMMA · Oct 13, 4:00 PM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTLuis Francischinelli RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established Current TORK55.9% Simple average55.9% Calibrated average56.4% Kalshi70.0% Inspect the methods and progress →
Will Rentz vs Luis Francischinelli
55.9%Luis Francischinelli
LOCKED Oct 13, 3:03 PM PDTAll four probabilities, converted to the same fighter, average 55.88% for Luis Francischinelli. 4/4 models select this fighter.
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A documented difference, its timing, and limits.
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18 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Gemini: Francischinelli's 6-1 professional record
- Claude: Francischinelli 6-1 with four KO/TKO finishes in his last five, three in round one
- GPT: Francischinelli has the only verified fighter profile in the supplied evidence.
- Grok: Francischinelli 6-1 professional record
Read all four model reports
Gemini · Luis Francischinelli · 55.5%
Luis Francischinelli has a proven track record in a reputable regional promotion (LFA), boasting a 6-1 record with multiple first-round knockouts. However, there is absolutely no data available for his opponent, Will Rentz. Due to this extreme asymmetry in information, the prediction leans slightly toward Francischinelli based on his verified finishing ability, but confidence is very low.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 13, 12:43 PM PDTClaude · Luis Francischinelli · 55.0%
Only one side has a verified profile. Francischinelli shows a 6-1 record with four of his five recent results being first- or second-round knockouts, including a KO win in May 2026 roughly five months before this bout, indicating he is active, in form, and carries genuine one-shot power at welterweight. His extreme 6'6" frame for 170 lbs implies a large length and range advantage against most welterweights. Against that, his only loss came by rear-naked choke in round three, suggesting grappling and late-round durability are his soft spots, and nothing is known about Will Rentz, who could be a wrestler or submission specialist capable of exploiting exactly that. With no profile, record, or odds for Rentz, and no verified late-context observations on either side, the evidence supports only a small lean toward the fighter whose demonstrated finishing ability is documented.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 13, 12:43 PM PDTGPT · Luis Francischinelli · 60.0%
Luis Francischinelli is the only fighter in this matchup with a verified pre-event profile in the supplied evidence, so the forecast must lean on his known record and recent results while heavily discounting for the major information gap on Will Rentz. Francischinelli is 6-1 and his recent record shows multiple first- and second-round knockout wins in LFA, which is meaningful evidence of finishing ability against recognized regional competition. His lone listed loss came by third-round rear-naked choke, suggesting at least one plausible vulnerability in grappling. Because there is no verified profile, style data, record, or recent form for Rentz in the supplied evidence, uncertainty is substantial and the probability must stay fairly close to 50 rather than overstating the known fighter’s edge. No verified late-context observations were supplied, so there is no evidence here of missed wt
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 13, 12:43 PM PDTGrok · Luis Francischinelli · 53.0%
Only one verified fighter profile exists. Luis Francischinelli enters with a 6-1 record featuring five recent wins, four by first-round KO or TKO. Will Rentz has no profile, stats, or fight history supplied. This extreme asymmetry in available evidence produces a forecast only marginally above a coin flip.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 13, 12:43 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Complete lack of data for Will Rentz
- No striking or grappling statistics available for either fighter
- No reach or stance information for Francischinelli
- No profile whatsoever for Will Rentz, so style matchup cannot be assessed
- No striking or grappling rate statistics for either fighter
- No licensed pre-event odds connected, removing an independent market anchor
- Francischinelli data is secondary professional record only, not verified fight metrics
- Opponent quality in his LFA wins cannot be gauged from the supplied data
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- Probability unchanged
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
73df39de3b0da4a6911ed5cedd0682e67003c502d8b5110f4ca8fe8ce34c8742 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
d133bfed96ec836aeaf4739033ba05f37c60a6bab6c2fc9e00a6ee55caa69c73
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
All probabilities below refer to Luis Francischinelli. Model inputs were fixed at Oct 13, 3:03 PM PDT. The market was observed at Oct 13, 3:00 PM PDT.
Comparison record
Saved Oct 13, 3:09 PM PDT. This is a research comparison; no method has been promoted.
e17cfedfe103a05d0e7e490914f67c6201964a6a8296f3734204777c98823657Available source context
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Luis Francischinelli def. Will Rentz · TKO (punches) · R1 · 2:18
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