Tennis · Oct 13, 8:05 PM PDT

Iga Swiatek vs Magdalena Frech

85.8%Iga Swiatek

LOCKED Oct 13, 7:30 PM PDT

4/4 independent models select Iga Swiatek; all four oriented probabilities average 85.75%.

FORECASTIga Swiatek

Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.

RELIABILITY4/4 model reports

22 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.

MARKET VALUENot established

A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.

Why the models lean this way

These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.

Gemini: Swiatek's top 10 ranking (9) compared to Frech's ranking (56)
Claude: Ranking gap: Swiatek No. 9 (3999 pts) vs Frech No. 56 (1045 pts)
Grok: Swiatek current rank 9 vs Frech rank 56
GPT: Swiatek holds a large ranking advantage: No. 9 vs No. 56.

Read all four model reports

Gemini · Iga Swiatek · 88.0%

Iga Swiatek holds a significant advantage in both ranking and season performance. Ranked 9th with 3999 points and a 39-15 record, she vastly outperforms Magdalena Frech, who is ranked 56th with 1045 points and a losing 20-24 season record.

google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 13, 5:01 PM PDT

Claude · Iga Swiatek · 88.0%

Swiatek is ranked 9th with nearly four times Frech's ranking points (3999 vs 1045) and a much stronger season record (39-15, .722, one title) versus Frech's losing 20-24 mark and slipping rank (48 to 56). A roughly 47-place ranking gap plus the win-rate differential typically translates into a heavy favorite in a WTA Round 2 hard-court event. Surface-specific form, injury status, head-to-head history, travel/rest, and market odds are not supplied in the evidence package, so the estimate rests solely on current rank and season win-loss; without those modifiers I shade slightly below the ceiling implied by pure ranking gaps.

anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 13, 5:01 PM PDT

Grok · Iga Swiatek · 85.0%

Swiatek holds rank 9 with 3999 points and a 39-15 season record including one title, while Frech is ranked 56 with 1045 points and a 20-24 record. These supplied ranking and win-loss facts indicate a substantial gap favoring Swiatek. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable as they are not supplied in the evidence package.

xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 13, 5:01 PM PDT

GPT · Iga Swiatek · 82.0%

Using only the supplied evidence, Iga Swiatek is the stronger side based on a much better current ranking and season record. Swiatek is ranked No. 9 with a 39-15 singles record and 1 title, while Magdalena Frech is ranked No. 56 with a 20-24 record and 0 titles. That combination points to a clear pre-match edge for Swiatek. Because the evidence package explicitly limits us to current ranking and season singles results, this estimate cannot incorporate surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, or market odds; all of those are unavailable here. Given the sizable class gap but incomplete context, Swiatek is favored strongly but not near certainty.

openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 13, 5:00 PM PDT

What remains uncertain

Surface form is unavailable
Injuries are unavailable
Head-to-head records are unavailable
Travel schedules are unavailable
Market odds are unavailable
No head-to-head data supplied
No surface-specific or recent-form splits
No injury or fitness information

What to watch next

Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.

Open the event and source context →

What changed before the lock

Oct 13, 7:30 PM PDT · final lock0.5 percentage points higher for Iga Swiatek
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
97aaf147ba2209569ae8fbcc7d1aa0592c85d5132a1cf0f9b90cbcb1cbf2c898
Oct 13, 4:20 AM PDT · house adjudication completedFirst recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
6454b474a393a6545c4cadf678f513795f70c842785211a990e582f679795bba

Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.

The saved method comparison

All probabilities below refer to Iga Swiatek. Model inputs were fixed at Oct 13, 7:30 PM PDT. The market was observed at Oct 13, 7:25 PM PDT.

Current TORK85.8%

Simple average85.8%

Calibrated average89.1%

Kalshi92.0%

Comparison record

Saved Oct 13, 7:34 PM PDT. This is a research comparison; no method has been promoted.

1b3f315de1229037b09434fb7861ecb460b28d38820d02a18544dc283ae9e4a5

Inspect the methods and progress →

Available source context

site.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗site.api.espn.com ↗

These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.

Recorded outcome: (7) Iga Swiatek (POL) bt Magdalena Frech (POL) 6-2 6-1

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