Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsNFL · Oct 4, 10:00 AM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTBaltimore Ravens RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established Current TORK83.3% Simple average83.3% Calibrated average86.4% Kalshi86.0% Inspect the methods and progress →
Tennessee Titans vs Baltimore Ravens
83.3%Baltimore Ravens
LOCKED Oct 4, 9:30 AM PDT4/4 independent models select Baltimore Ravens; all four oriented probabilities average 83.25%.
Check the evidence
The most important gap and your next source check.
- Read the model reasons and reported limits.
- Inspect available source context; record missing sources.
- Identify what remains unverified and your next action.
16 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: Market line BAL -11.5 implies roughly an 85% win probability for Baltimore
- Gemini: Ravens are 11.5-point home favorites
- GPT: Baltimore is home for this game.
- Grok: Ravens 2-1 record versus Titans 0-3
Read all four model reports
Claude · Baltimore Ravens · 86.0%
The DraftKings line of BAL -11.5 implies a large home favorite; spreads of 11 to 12 points historically convert to roughly an 84-88% win probability for the favorite. That market signal is reinforced by records: Baltimore is 2-1 while Tennessee is 0-3, and the game is at M&T Bank Stadium with Baltimore hosting. A low total (42.5) slightly compresses variance relative to a high-scoring script, marginally helping the favorite hold a double-digit edge. No injury or quarterback-status information is provided for either side, so the estimate rests on the market line, records, and venue, and is set modestly inside the raw market-implied figure to respect that uncertainty.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Sep 30, 2:25 PM PDTGemini · Baltimore Ravens · 86.0%
The Baltimore Ravens are heavy 11.5-point home favorites against the winless Tennessee Titans. A spread of -11.5 typically translates to an implied win probability of around 85-87% in the NFL.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Sep 30, 2:25 PM PDTGPT · Baltimore Ravens · 83.0%
Baltimore has the clearly stronger evidence package: a 2-1 record versus Tennessee at 0-3, plus home field at M&T Bank Stadium. The strongest signal is the supplied market line of Ravens -11.5, which implies a substantial expected gap in team strength for this matchup. With no conflicting facts in the package, Baltimore is the justified favorite. Because no moneyline, quarterback details, weather, or meaningful injury information are provided, the estimate should remain bounded rather than extreme.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Sep 30, 2:25 PM PDTGrok · Baltimore Ravens · 78.0%
Baltimore Ravens enter at 2-1 while hosting a 0-3 Tennessee Titans team. The DraftKings market line lists BAL -11.5, indicating a substantial home-team edge consistent with the records and venue. No countervailing facts appear in the package.
xai/grok-4.3 · Sep 30, 2:25 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Injury lists are empty for both teams; availability reports may not yet have published
- No quarterback status or depth-chart detail supplied
- No moneyline prices provided, so implied probability is derived from the spread alone
- No weather data available for the game
- No advanced efficiency, scoring-margin, or head-to-head history included
- No moneyline odds provided, requiring probability estimation from the point spread
- No injury information available
- Early season game (Week 4) means team strength evaluations may still be stabilizing
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 0.5 percentage points higher for Baltimore Ravens
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
d54870694af8d3f315d71dd6569a74f51847ab03aea2cdee6912671300ff9422 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
f8c233625145a70bdd707ff5b9cffc2bc3bc30af64da8039b6a1d2aeadc92628
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
All probabilities below refer to Baltimore Ravens. Model inputs were fixed at Oct 4, 9:30 AM PDT. The market was observed at Oct 4, 9:25 AM PDT.
Comparison record
Saved Oct 4, 9:34 AM PDT. This is a research comparison; no method has been promoted.
bb8205b6c97b22bc2dd2b9bfe0ce9b6afb1f156185fb853475a933d5eb71ffabAvailable source context
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Tennessee Titans 18, Baltimore Ravens 24
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