Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsTennis · Oct 15, 4:50 AM PDT FORECASTDominika Salkova RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Viktoria Hruncakova vs Dominika Salkova
56.5%Dominika Salkova
LOCKED Oct 15, 4:00 AM PDT4/4 independent models select Dominika Salkova; all four oriented probabilities average 56.5%.
20 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Grok: Salkova current rank 120 vs Hruncakova unranked
- Gemini: Dominika Salkova has a season win-loss record of 26-26.
- Claude: Salkova holds an explicit ATP/WTA-style rank of 120 with 614 points; Hruncakova's rank is null in the supplied data
- GPT: Dominika Salkova has an explicit current rank of No. 120.
Read all four model reports
Grok · Dominika Salkova · 57.0%
Dominika Salkova holds an explicit WTA rank of 120 with 614 ranking points while Viktoria Hruncakova has null rank and points. Season singles records are nearly identical (Hruncakova 28-26, Salkova 26-26). The ranking differential supplies the sole basis for a modest edge to Salkova. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable as they are not supplied in the evidence package.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 14, 5:02 PM PDTGemini · Dominika Salkova · 52.0%
Both players have nearly identical season win-loss records, with Salkova at 26-26 and Hruncakova at 28-26. Salkova is slightly favored due to having a verified current rank of 120, whereas Hruncakova's rank is unlisted in the provided data, suggesting Salkova may be competing more consistently at a higher tier.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 14, 5:02 PM PDTClaude · Dominika Salkova · 57.0%
Evidence is thin and nearly balanced. Salkova has an explicit current ranking of No. 120 with 614 points and recent upward movement (from 126), while Hruncakova has no ranking supplied at all, which weakly suggests she sits outside the comparable ranked tier or has incomplete data. Season records are essentially level (Hruncakova 28-26, .519; Salkova 26-26, .500), and neither has a title. The small ranking-provenance edge for Salkova justifies only a modest tilt above a coin flip. Surface-specific form, injury status, head-to-head history, travel/fatigue, and market odds are explicitly unavailable in this evidence package, so no adjustment for those factors is possible.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 14, 5:02 PM PDTGPT · Dominika Salkova · 60.0%
Using only the supplied evidence, Dominika Salkova has the clearest edge because she has an explicit current WTA rank of 120, while Viktoria Hruncakova has no current rank supplied. Their season singles records are close: Hruncakova is 28-26 and Salkova is 26-26, so win-loss form alone suggests little separation, with only a slight volume/record edge to Hruncakova. Balancing Salkova’s meaningful ranking evidence against Hruncakova’s marginally better season record leads to a modest, not overwhelming, advantage for Salkova. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable in the evidence package.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 14, 5:02 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No surface-specific data available
- No head-to-head history supplied
- No injury or travel information provided
- Evidence limited to ESPN rank and season W-L only
- Surface form is unavailable.
- Injuries are unavailable.
- Head-to-head records are unavailable.
- Travel information is unavailable.
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 1.0 percentage points lower for Dominika Salkova
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
5b55d9564455765f0ddb1768cd3b0c8cfa688910a49c504709c1474019ce1baf - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
3e50b6f03a799335b7895e4742431a05f44d24a3c894cbda39db8bff9d89c624
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
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These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: (6) Dominika Salkova (CZE) bt Viktoria Hruncakova (SVK) 2-6 6-4 6-3
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