Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsNFL · Oct 11, 10:00 AM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTPittsburgh Steelers RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established Current TORK58.4% Simple average58.4% Calibrated average59.2% Kalshi60.0% Inspect the methods and progress →
Indianapolis Colts vs Pittsburgh Steelers
58.4%Pittsburgh Steelers
LOCKED Oct 11, 9:30 AM PDT4/4 independent models select Pittsburgh Steelers; all four oriented probabilities average 58.38%.
Check the evidence
The most important gap and your next source check.
- Read the model reasons and reported limits.
- Inspect available source context; record missing sources.
- Identify what remains unverified and your next action.
16 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Gemini: Market spread of PIT -3
- Grok: Identical 2-2 records for both teams
- Claude: DraftKings line PIT -3, home favorite at Acrisure Stadium
- GPT: Both teams are 2-2, so record alone does not separate them.
Read all four model reports
Gemini · Pittsburgh Steelers · 59.5%
The Pittsburgh Steelers are 3-point home favorites against the Indianapolis Colts. Both teams enter the game with identical 2-2 records. A -3 spread typically implies a win probability of around 59-60% for the favorite.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 11, 7:05 AM PDTGrok · Pittsburgh Steelers · 57.0%
Both teams enter at 2-2 with identical records. Pittsburgh hosts at Acrisure Stadium and is favored by 3 points on the market line, indicating a modest home-edge advantage in an otherwise even matchup. No further comparative statistics, quarterback details, or injury reports are supplied, so the forecast rests solely on the spread and venue.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 11, 7:05 AM PDTClaude · Pittsburgh Steelers · 59.0%
Both teams enter at 2-2, so records provide no differentiation. The only discriminating evidence is the DraftKings line of PIT -3 at home with a low total of 41.5. A 3-point home favorite in a low-scoring projected game historically converts to roughly a 57-60% win probability; the low total slightly compresses edges but 3 points remains a meaningful key number. No injury or quarterback information is supplied for either side, so I anchor close to the market-implied figure without further adjustment.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 11, 7:05 AM PDTGPT · Pittsburgh Steelers · 58.0%
The immutable package provides one meaningful comparative signal beyond identical 2-2 records: Pittsburgh is the home team and is favored by 3 points at DraftKings. In an otherwise even matchup by record, a standard home-field market edge of roughly a field goal points to Pittsburgh being the more likely winner, but not by a large margin. With no weather signal, no listed injuries, and no quarterback-specific information, the market spread is the strongest evidence in the package, and it supports a modest Steelers edge.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 11, 7:05 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No moneyline odds provided
- No injury reports available
- Weather details are missing
- No team efficiency, offensive/defensive metrics, or recent form provided
- Injury and quarterback status listed as empty
- Moneyline odds not supplied, only spread and total
- No moneyline prices provided; probability inferred from spread conversion
- Injury lists are empty for both teams, likely incomplete rather than genuinely clean
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 0.6 percentage points higher for Pittsburgh Steelers
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
38ee7e6756cdf6433b1878b91fca82fc8853d9ad36a1911747e324bddb6f163b - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
823a056dbfb55dfb0fe6e5d4ad09ee37cb267a3380f97991e4d6cfe5ca49a299
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
All probabilities below refer to Pittsburgh Steelers. Model inputs were fixed at Oct 11, 9:30 AM PDT. The market was observed at Oct 11, 9:25 AM PDT.
Comparison record
Saved Oct 11, 9:34 AM PDT. This is a research comparison; no method has been promoted.
edf5662ea1125188ee09d00e9e6b15ab2460de9bacee908de39c70ec35dcf55bAvailable source context
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Indianapolis Colts 22, Pittsburgh Steelers 34
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