Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsNFL · Oct 26, 5:15 PM PDT FORECASTPhiladelphia Eagles RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles
56.0%Philadelphia Eagles
NOT LOCKED4/4 independent models select Philadelphia Eagles; all four oriented probabilities average 56%.
18 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Grok: Both teams 2-3 record
- Claude: Identical 2-3 records give no record-based edge
- Gemini: Philadelphia Eagles have home-field advantage at Lincoln Financial Field
- GPT: Philadelphia is the home team at Lincoln Financial Field.
Read all four model reports
Grok · Philadelphia Eagles · 53.0%
Both teams hold identical 2-3 records entering week 7. The only comparative detail is venue, with Philadelphia hosting at Lincoln Financial Field. No market line, injuries, or other performance indicators are supplied to differentiate further.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 11, 5:01 PM PDTClaude · Philadelphia Eagles · 62.0%
Both teams enter at 2-3, so the only hard differentiator in the package is venue: Philadelphia hosts at Lincoln Financial Field in a Sunday night-type slot. Baseline NFL home-field advantage is worth roughly 55-58% win probability between evenly matched teams, and I nudge slightly higher given the Eagles' stronger recent roster/organizational baseline relative to a Dallas team that has typically relied on offense and has had defensive volatility. No market line, weather, or injury/QB-status data is supplied, so I keep the estimate close to the home-field baseline rather than projecting a large edge.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 11, 5:01 PM PDTGemini · Philadelphia Eagles · 55.0%
Both teams enter the matchup with identical 2-3 records. In the absence of a market line or advanced statistical metrics, the Philadelphia Eagles are given a slight edge based on standard NFL home-field advantage at Lincoln Financial Field.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 11, 5:01 PM PDTGPT · Philadelphia Eagles · 54.0%
The evidence shows a Week 7 game with Dallas at Philadelphia, and both teams enter at identical 2-3 records. With no market line, no weather, and no usable injury differentiation, the main comparative edge available in the package is home field, which modestly favors Philadelphia. Because the teams have the same record and the evidence lacks stronger separators, this should be treated as a close game rather than a strong lean.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 11, 5:01 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No injury reports available
- No market line provided
- No team stats or quarterback details
- No market moneyline or spread provided to anchor the estimate
- Injury lists are empty for both teams, likely incomplete rather than genuinely clean
- No quarterback availability or depth-chart detail
- Records are current as of Oct 12, roughly two weeks before kickoff, so intervening results are unknown
- No weather data for a late-October outdoor game
What to watch next
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Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
56522cea34f453f44b7e313179a650a1fe8388f06a336159a7158646f2d25e89
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
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