Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsCollege Football · Oct 10, 12:30 PM PDT FORECASTIllinois Fighting Illini RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Michigan State Spartans vs Illinois Fighting Illini
55.5%Illinois Fighting Illini
LOCKED Oct 10, 12:01 PM PDT4/4 independent models select Illinois Fighting Illini; all four oriented probabilities average 55.5%.
18 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Gemini: Market line favors Illinois by 2.5 points
- Claude: DraftKings line ILL -2.5 implies Illinois favored by ~2.5 points despite playing on the road
- GPT: DraftKings lists Illinois as a 2.5-point favorite.
- Grok: Identical 2-3 records for both teams
Read all four model reports
Gemini · Illinois Fighting Illini · 56.0%
Illinois is favored by 2.5 points on the road at Spartan Stadium. Both teams have identical 2-3 records, but the market line indicates a slight edge for the Fighting Illini despite being the away team. A 2.5-point spread typically translates to a win probability of around 55-57%.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 9, 9:22 PM PDTClaude · Illinois Fighting Illini · 57.0%
Both teams enter 2-3 with no rankings, so the only meaningful comparative signal is the market line: DraftKings has Illinois -2.5 despite the game being at Spartan Stadium. That implies Illinois is roughly 5-6 points better on a neutral field, a modest but real edge. A 2.5-point road favorite historically converts to about a 56-58% win probability in college football, with the key-number gap between 2.5 and 3 keeping it near the low end of that band. No injury, efficiency, or situational data is available to adjust away from the market-implied baseline.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 9, 9:22 PM PDTGPT · Illinois Fighting Illini · 56.0%
The strongest comparative signal in the evidence package is the market line: Illinois is favored by 2.5 points despite playing on the road at Spartan Stadium. With both teams listed at identical 2-3 records and neither team ranked, the records and rankings do not separate the sides. A road favorite status is meaningful because it implies Illinois is viewed as the slightly stronger team even after accounting for home-field advantage for Michigan State. Given the modest size of the spread, this projects as a fairly close game rather than a dominant edge, so the win probability should be only moderately above 50%.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 9, 9:22 PM PDTGrok · Illinois Fighting Illini · 53.0%
Both teams enter at identical 2-3 records with no rankings supplied. The only comparative signal is the DraftKings market line listing Illinois as a 2.5-point road favorite. Home-field advantage at Spartan Stadium is already priced into that line, leaving Illinois with a modest edge. No other differentiating facts are present in the evidence package.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 9, 9:22 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Missing advanced team efficiency metrics
- Missing injury reports and depth chart changes
- Missing weather conditions and recent performance trends
- No injury reports, depth-chart, or availability information
- No advanced efficiency, SP+/FPI, or strength-of-schedule data
- Records lack opponent quality context or point differentials
- Single sportsbook line with no line-movement history
- No weather or travel detail
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 0.3 percentage points lower for Illinois Fighting Illini
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
74d97918d24740b010ded1aefc5fd8df40878701d0e1ab1aa13dd69e5373c6da - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
069d5f42cce8149ae738c63029f959bdc6ece8602bd6fee125cd885b640b2fd5
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Final/OT
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