Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsCollege Football · Oct 10, 1:15 PM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTTennessee Volunteers RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Arkansas Razorbacks vs Tennessee Volunteers
80.6%Tennessee Volunteers
LOCKED Oct 10, 12:46 PM PDT4/4 independent models select Tennessee Volunteers; all four oriented probabilities average 80.63%.
Check the evidence
The most important gap and your next source check.
- Read the model reasons and reported limits.
- Inspect available source context; record missing sources.
- Identify what remains unverified and your next action.
16 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Grok: Tennessee 4-1 record and #15 ranking vs Arkansas 2-3 unranked
- Gemini: Tennessee is ranked #15 with a 4-1 record.
- Claude: Market line TENN -13.5 on the road implies ~83-86% win probability
- GPT: Tennessee has the better record: 4-1 versus Arkansas at 2-3.
Read all four model reports
Grok · Tennessee Volunteers · 76.0%
Tennessee holds a 4-1 record and #15 ranking versus Arkansas's 2-3 and unranked status. The 13.5-point road favorite line at Arkansas's home venue signals a clear talent and recent-form edge for Tennessee despite the neutral-site disadvantage of travel.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 10, 9:08 AM PDTGemini · Tennessee Volunteers · 82.5%
Tennessee is a 13.5-point road favorite against Arkansas. The Volunteers are ranked 15th with a 4-1 record, while the Razorbacks are unranked at 2-3. A 13.5-point spread typically translates to an implied win probability of around 80-85%.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 10, 9:08 AM PDTClaude · Tennessee Volunteers · 84.0%
DraftKings lists Tennessee at -13.5 despite playing at Arkansas, implying a roughly two-score edge on a neutral basis (~17 points) and a market-implied win probability near 83-86% for a favorite of that size. Supporting signals align: Tennessee is 4-1 and ranked No. 15, while Arkansas is 2-3 and unranked. Home-field advantage for Arkansas is already embedded in the line, so no further adjustment is warranted. I shade marginally toward the standard historical conversion for a 13.5-point favorite, acknowledging that single-game college football variance and unknown injury/availability information keep the estimate below the 90% range.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 10, 9:08 AM PDTGPT · Tennessee Volunteers · 80.0%
Tennessee is the clear evidence-based favorite from the supplied package. The Volunteers have the better record (4-1 vs 2-3), are ranked No. 15 while Arkansas is unranked, and the market line lists Tennessee -13.5. Arkansas does have home field at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium, which offsets some of Tennessee’s edge, but the combination of ranking, record, and especially a double-digit spread points to Tennessee winning substantially more often than not. A probability around 80% is consistent with a strong road favorite while still allowing for home-field upset risk.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 10, 9:08 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No injury or depth-chart data available
- No advanced efficiency or opponent-adjusted metrics
- Evidence limited to structured scoreboard facts and market line only
- Future date (2026) precludes any post-event verification
- No injury information provided.
- No advanced efficiency metrics or matchup statistics available.
- Weather conditions and other game-day factors are unknown.
- No injury, suspension, or depth-chart information supplied
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- Probability unchanged
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
d824d6b52073f5d3075b84a6d0b83e02994a6ca2f1ad10c4e5b4598c310fe57c - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
8490efd1e6ac25a54258e63d0bdabe0b6c54136bf48e619d7fe775999adbee12
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Final
Finish your review
Record whether this brief helped, how long the review took, and your next action.
Return to your review →