Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsTennis · Oct 18, 3:00 AM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTAleksandr Shevchenko RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Stefanos Sakellaridis vs Aleksandr Shevchenko
62.8%Aleksandr Shevchenko
NOT LOCKED4/4 independent models select Aleksandr Shevchenko; all four oriented probabilities average 62.75%.
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20 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Gemini: Aleksandr Shevchenko is ranked 24 places higher than Stefanos Sakellaridis (111 vs 135).
- Grok: Shevchenko current rank 111 superior to Sakellaridis rank 135
- Claude: Shevchenko ranked 111 vs Sakellaridis 135 (568 vs 429 points)
- GPT: Shevchenko is higher ranked: No. 111 vs No. 135.
Read all four model reports
Gemini · Aleksandr Shevchenko · 68.0%
Aleksandr Shevchenko is favored to win this match based on his higher ATP ranking (111 vs 135) and significantly greater tour-level experience this season (12 wins compared to Sakellaridis's 1 win). Shevchenko also holds a higher win percentage (40% vs 20%). Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 17, 7:35 AM PDTGrok · Aleksandr Shevchenko · 62.0%
Aleksandr Shevchenko holds the superior current rank (111 vs 135), higher ranking points (568 vs 429), and a substantially stronger season singles record (12-18 vs 1-4). These supplied facts indicate a moderate edge for Shevchenko in a best-evidence estimate. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable as they are not supplied in the evidence package.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 17, 7:35 AM PDTClaude · Aleksandr Shevchenko · 61.0%
Shevchenko holds a modest edge on both supplied metrics: a higher ATP rank (111 vs 135, 568 vs 429 points) and a far larger sample of tour-level results this season (12-18) versus Sakellaridis's sparse 1-4. The ranking gap of ~24 places is small in itself, but Sakellaridis's thin and poor main-draw record offers no offsetting signal, so a modest favorite rating is appropriate. Surface-specific form (indoor hard in Almaty), injury status, head-to-head history, travel/schedule, and market odds are all unavailable in this evidence package, which caps confidence; qualifying matches between players in the 100-140 band are frequently near coin-flips.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 17, 7:35 AM PDTGPT · Aleksandr Shevchenko · 60.0%
Using only the supplied evidence, Aleksandr Shevchenko has the stronger profile. He is ranked higher at No. 111 versus Stefanos Sakellaridis at No. 135, with more ranking points (568 vs 429). He also has a much larger 2026 singles sample and better demonstrated season volume, at 12-18 versus Sakellaridis' 1-4. Neither record is strong in pure win rate terms, but Shevchenko's higher rank and larger body of results make him the more likely winner. Because the evidence package is limited to current ranking and season singles record only, this should remain a modest edge rather than an overwhelming one. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable and cannot be used.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 17, 7:35 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Surface-specific form is unavailable.
- Injury reports are not supplied.
- Head-to-head records are unavailable.
- Travel schedules and fatigue factors are not supplied.
- Market odds are unavailable.
- Surface form unavailable
- Injuries unavailable
- Head-to-head unavailable
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- First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
4c84fb08366b758b3f9e66626cbcfb41bfad558a9643b49eabb15268f2c4ca72
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
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