Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsCollege Football · Oct 17, 4:30 PM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTNotre Dame Fighting Irish RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
BYU Cougars vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish
75.9%Notre Dame Fighting Irish
NOT LOCKED4/4 independent models select Notre Dame Fighting Irish; all four oriented probabilities average 75.88%.
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17 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: Market line ND -10.5 implies roughly 80% win probability for Notre Dame
- Gemini: Notre Dame is favored by 10.5 points on the road.
- Grok: Notre Dame ranked 2, BYU ranked 8
- GPT: Market line favors Notre Dame by 10.5 points, the strongest direct comparative indicator in the package
Read all four model reports
Claude · Notre Dame Fighting Irish · 80.0%
The DraftKings line of ND -10.5 is the strongest single signal and is especially telling because Notre Dame is laying double digits on the road at LaVell Edwards Stadium, implying a large perceived talent/efficiency gap. A 10.5-point favorite historically wins roughly 78-83% of the time; the relatively low total (46.5) slightly reduces variance, nudging toward the upper end, while BYU's home-field edge and 5-0 record with a No. 8 ranking are already priced in. Rankings (No. 2 vs No. 8) and records (6-0 vs 5-0) corroborate the market's lean toward Notre Dame.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 17, 10:08 AM PDTGemini · Notre Dame Fighting Irish · 78.5%
Notre Dame is a 10.5-point road favorite against an undefeated, top-10 BYU team. A double-digit spread in a top-10 matchup strongly indicates the market perceives Notre Dame as the superior team, translating to roughly a 75-80% implied win probability.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 17, 10:08 AM PDTGrok · Notre Dame Fighting Irish · 68.0%
Notre Dame holds the superior ranking (2 vs 8), one additional win (6-0 vs 5-0), and enters as a 10.5-point road favorite per the market line. These factors indicate a clear talent and form edge for ND despite the neutral-to-hostile venue at LaVell Edwards Stadium. The spread magnitude supports a win probability comfortably above 60 percent.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 17, 10:08 AM PDTGPT · Notre Dame Fighting Irish · 77.0%
Notre Dame is the better-supported winner on the immutable evidence package. The supplied market line of Notre Dame -10.5 is the strongest comparative signal and implies a clear but not overwhelming edge on a neutral forecasting basis. Notre Dame also holds the higher ranking (#2 vs #8) and the better record (6-0 vs 5-0), which align with the market signal. BYU gains some counterweight from playing at LaVell Edwards Stadium, but the home venue is not enough in this evidence set to offset a double-digit spread favoring the road team. Based only on these supplied facts, Notre Dame is the likelier winner.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 17, 10:08 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No injury or depth-chart information supplied
- No advanced efficiency, strength-of-schedule, or point-differential data
- Single sportsbook line with no line-movement history or closing price
- No weather or altitude-adjustment detail for the Provo venue
- No head-to-head or recent-form game logs provided
- Lack of advanced efficiency metrics.
- No injury or player availability information.
- No weather or specific matchup data.
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- First recorded forecast
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Record hash
81ce432948278cfeeb690daf4eb9fe8e568cd765882d1f6cb01bfbfa9e3a8ce2
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
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