Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsBoxing · Sep 12, 2:00 PM PDT FORECASTSean Garcia RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Sean Garcia vs Abraham Morales
53.0%Sean Garcia
LOCKED Sep 12, 9:20 AM PDTAll four probabilities, converted to the same fighter, average 53% for Sean Garcia. 4/4 models select this fighter. Low confidence; the house still publishes a winner forecast.
12 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Grok: Identical official weights
- Gemini: Equal weigh-in weights
- Claude: Both fighters made 134 lb; weight offers no edge
- GPT: Only verified data: Sean Garcia vs Abraham Morales at lightweight over 6 rounds
Read all four model reports
Grok · Sean Garcia · 50.0%
Evidence supplies only identical official weights at 134 lb and a 6-round lightweight bout. No records, opponent histories, recent form, or style details are present, so no directional edge can be identified. Selection is arbitrary under these constraints.
xai/grok-4.3 · Sep 12, 9:20 AM PDTGemini · Sean Garcia · 50.0%
There is no documented evidence regarding the professional records, past opponent quality, recent form, or fighting styles of either Sean Garcia or Abraham Morales. Without any historical data to evaluate a skill advantage, the forecast is a pure toss-up.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Sep 12, 9:20 AM PDTClaude · Sean Garcia · 62.0%
Evidence is limited to a weigh-in line: 6-round lightweight bout, both at 134 lb. No records, opponent quality, recent form, or style data are documented, so no skill edge can be established from the supplied material. The only weak directional signal is structural: Garcia is listed as side A (typically the promoted/house fighter on a Garcia-headlined card), while Morales's placement is consistent with an opponent-side role in a short six-round bout. Equal weights and round count add nothing. I therefore lean modestly to Sean Garcia with low confidence, close to a coin flip adjusted slightly for A-side framing.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Sep 12, 9:20 AM PDTGPT · Sean Garcia · 50.0%
Evidence only confirms the matchup, 6-round distance, lightweight division, and identical official weights. There is no supplied record, opponent-quality history, recent form, or style information for either boxer. Since weigh-in parity and round count do not establish a skill edge, the pre-fight evidence does not justify favoring either side. Conditional on a decisive result, this is effectively a pick'em.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Sep 12, 9:20 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No verified injury, camp, judges, or detailed opponent-adjusted history feed is connected
- Round start times are not fixed
- No professional records provided
- No opponent history available
- No style or recent form information
- Only a weigh-in result line is provided as a fact
- No win-loss records or opponent histories for either boxer
- No injury, camp, layoff, or judging information
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- Probability unchanged
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
4697d63f83eb11571654469f2040209b67c2abe7e849a37d0e55b97c87b0601e - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
741f8dbde826170c245917c653d051351f64f9d88a8d97abf3be082904164ee0
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Sean Garcia defeats Abraham Morales via majority decision (56-56, 58-54, 58-54)
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