Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsCollege Football · Oct 10, 1:15 PM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTOhio State Buckeyes RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Ohio State Buckeyes vs Maryland Terrapins
95.5%Ohio State Buckeyes
LOCKED Oct 10, 12:46 PM PDT4/4 independent models select Ohio State Buckeyes; all four oriented probabilities average 95.5%.
Check the evidence
The most important gap and your next source check.
- Read the model reasons and reported limits.
- Inspect available source context; record missing sources.
- Identify what remains unverified and your next action.
16 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: DraftKings line of OSU -31.5 implies an overwhelming market-implied favorite
- Gemini: Ohio State is ranked #5 in the nation.
- GPT: Ohio State has the better record: 4-1 versus Maryland's 2-3
- Grok: Ohio State 4-1 record and #5 ranking vs Maryland 2-3 unranked
Read all four model reports
Claude · Ohio State Buckeyes · 97.0%
Ohio State is a 31.5-point home favorite at Ohio Stadium, ranked No. 5 at 4-1, facing an unranked 2-3 Maryland team. Historical conversion of college football point spreads to win probability puts favorites of roughly 30+ points at about 96-98% to win outright. The directional signals (ranking, record, venue, market line) all align with no contradictions, so a high-confidence estimate near the upper end is warranted, trimmed slightly for the inherent variance of a single game and unknown injury/personnel information.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 10, 10:23 AM PDTGemini · Ohio State Buckeyes · 99.0%
Ohio State is ranked #5 with a 4-1 record, playing at home against an unranked 2-3 Maryland team. The market line of OSU -31.5 indicates an overwhelming advantage for the Buckeyes, translating to a near-certain win probability.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 10, 10:23 AM PDTGPT · Ohio State Buckeyes · 93.0%
Ohio State is the clear evidence-backed favorite based on every comparative signal in the package: a better record (4-1 vs 2-3), a top-5 ranking (#5 vs unranked), home field at Ohio Stadium, and most importantly an extremely large market spread of Ohio State -31.5. In college football, a spread above four touchdowns indicates a very strong expectation that the favorite wins outright the large majority of the time. The record and ranking support that same direction. Given the consistency of all supplied signals and no conflicting evidence in the package, Ohio State should be assigned a very high win probability, though not absolute because single-game variance always remains.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 10, 10:23 AM PDTGrok · Ohio State Buckeyes · 93.0%
Ohio State enters at 4-1 with a #5 ranking and hosts Maryland (2-3, unranked) at Ohio Stadium. The -31.5 spread reflects a massive talent and form gap consistent with a home favorite of this caliber winning at a very high rate. No supplied facts contradict this hierarchy.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 10, 10:23 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No injury reports, depth-chart, or availability information supplied
- No advanced efficiency metrics (SP+, FEI, EPA) or strength-of-schedule context
- No information on quality of opponents in each team's record
- Single market snapshot from one provider; no line movement history
- No weather or situational (lookahead/rivalry) context
- No advanced statistical metrics or efficiency ratings provided.
- No injury reports or depth chart changes available.
- Weather conditions at Ohio Stadium are unknown.
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 0.3 percentage points lower for Ohio State Buckeyes
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
7d2e2aadb85cb6e8bd13e5a987a087d74f183ec43c2ba3cacbe6e8954df6f0e8 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
0e63b4926ef769b6acc8344a67aa800d9ac27bf31630bb6c8c7f039d8d97e14e
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Final
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