Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsMMA · Oct 31, 2:00 PM PDT FORECASTJean-Paul Lebosnoyani RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs Farman Hasanov
61.4%Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani
NOT LOCKEDAll four probabilities, converted to the same fighter, average 61.38% for Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani. 4/4 models select this fighter.
12 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: Large output edge and 8 career finishes for Lebosnoyani
- Gemini: Lebosnoyani's significant striking volume advantage (4.14 vs 1.40 SLpM)
- Grok: Lebosnoyani 11-2 record and three UFC wins vs Hasanov 6-0 with one UFC win
- GPT: Lebosnoyani has beaten multiple UFC-level opponents recently, including wins over Seok Hyeon Ko and Philip Rowe in 2026.
Read all four model reports
Claude · Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani · 60.0%
Lebosnoyani is far more active (4.14 strikes landed per minute vs 1.40), has 100 percent takedown defense, more pro fights, two UFC wins and eight finishes. Hasanov is unbeaten but low-output with tiny UFC sample, favoring the busier, younger man modestly.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 16, 5:07 PM PDTGemini · Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani · 62.5%
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani brings a significant experience advantage and a much higher striking output (4.14 SLpM compared to Hasanov's 1.40 SLpM). Lebosnoyani also boasts a 100% takedown defense rate in his recorded UFC/DWCS bouts, which should neutralize Hasanov's grappling attempts. While Hasanov is undefeated, his statistical profile is limited and shows an anomalous 0% takedown accuracy despite high attempt rates. The late context indicates this bout was added roughly 15 days before the event, introducing short-notice variance that tempers confidence. However, Lebosnoyani's proven finishing ability, higher activity level, and superior strength of schedule make him the more reliable pick.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 16, 5:07 PM PDTGrok · Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani · 67.0%
Lebosnoyani holds a 11-2 record with verified UFC wins over Ko, Rowe and Contender Series KO, plus superior striking volume (4.14/4.05), submission rate (1.93) and 100% takedown defense. Hasanov is 6-0 but shows minimal striking output (1.40/1.00) and unproven UFC-level grappling despite one recent decision win. Age and experience edge favor Lebosnoyani; bout addition 15 days out adds minor uncertainty but does not alter profiles.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 16, 5:06 PM PDTGPT · Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani · 56.0%
Lebosnoyani gets the slight pre-event edge on the supplied evidence because he has the deeper and more proven recent schedule, with two UFC wins in 2026 and a five-fight streak that includes both striking and submission wins. His official stats also show a more rounded offensive profile: higher striking volume than Hasanov, meaningful submission output, and 100% takedown defense in recorded UFC stats, which matters against an opponent whose profile is unusual and harder to trust at face value. Hasanov is undefeated and has very strong headline defensive numbers, but his sample appears thin, and the listed grappling metrics are internally hard to interpret because he is credited with 17.00 takedown attempts per 15 minutes but 0% takedown accuracy. That makes his true style and effectiveness less certain from the provided data alone. The verified late-context item is that this bout was a 2
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 16, 5:06 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No licensed pre-event odds supplied
- Hasanov UFC stats drawn from a single fight; 17.00 takedowns per 15 min with 0 percent accuracy is unreliable
- Bout added about 15 days out; camp length and notice impact unverified for both
- Hasanov's grappling statistics (17.00 TD/15 with 0% accuracy) indicate a severe small sample size anomaly
- Missing reach and stance data for both fighters
- Lack of licensed pre-event odds to gauge broader market sentiment
- Short-notice nature of the bout obscures the extent of both fighters' training camps
- Reach and stance data missing for both fighters
What to watch next
Wait for all required evidence and the pre-event lock. This view is not final.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
3fc70ecff848e7bafef9b4b8c5df41c604c5a550ff6bb6610ec9814302a962b6
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
No direct source links are attached to this brief. The event page shows the available context.
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Finish your review
Record whether this brief helped, how long the review took, and your next action.
Use this brief for a review →